Towards a Logical Framework for Reasoning about Risk

Evaluating the effectiveness of the security measures undertaken to protect a distributed system (e.g., protecting privacy of data in a network or in an information system) is a difficult task that, among other things, requires a risk assessment. We introduce a logical framework that allows one to reason about risk by means of operators that formalize causes, effects, preconditions, prevention and mitigation of events that may occur in the system. This is work in progress and we describe a number of interesting variants that could be considered.

[1]  Dov M. Gabbay,et al.  Chapter 13 – Labelled Deductive Systems , 2003 .

[2]  Pietro Torasso,et al.  TIME, ACTION‐TYPES, AND CAUSATION: AN INTEGRATED ANALYSIS , 1995, Comput. Intell..

[3]  Xiaoyang Sean Wang,et al.  Risk assessment in distributed authorization , 2005, FMSE '05.

[4]  Hudson Turner,et al.  A Logic of Universal Causation , 1999, Artif. Intell..

[5]  D. Gabbay,et al.  Handbook of tableau methods , 1999 .

[6]  Luca Viganò,et al.  A History of Until , 2009, M4M.

[7]  Mark Bickford,et al.  A Logic of Events , 2003 .

[8]  Anand Singh,et al.  Improving risk assessment methodology: a statistical design of experiments approach , 2009, SIN '09.

[9]  Luca Viganò,et al.  Labelled non-classical logics , 2000 .

[10]  Luca Viganò,et al.  Labelled Tableaux for Distributed Temporal Logic , 2009, J. Log. Comput..

[11]  D. Lewis.  Causation as Influence , 2000 .

[12]  John Bell.  A Common Sense Theory of Causation , 2003, CONTEXT.

[13]  Franz von Kutschera,et al.  Causation , 1993, J. Philos. Log..

[14]  J. Michael Dunn,et al.  Positive modal logic , 1995, Stud Logica.

[15]  Enrico Giunchiglia,et al.  Nonmonotonic causal theories , 2004, Artif. Intell..

[16]  Steffen Bartsch.  A calculus for the qualitative risk assessment of policy override authorization , 2010, SIN.

[17]  Ninghui Li,et al.  RT: a Role-based Trust-management framework , 2003, Proceedings DARPA Information Survivability Conference and Exposition.

[18]  D. Hubin,et al.  THE JOURNAL OF PHILOSOPHY , 2004 .