The BMRC High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Prediction System: TC-LAPS

Abstract A new Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System has been developed at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre. The features of the new prediction system can be summarized as follows: first, a 12-h, coarse-resolution data assimilation is used to define the outer structure and environment of the storm and to provide initial conditions for coarse mesh prediction. Then, synthetic data are generated to define a storm’s circulation, consistent with observed location, size, intensity, and past motion. The method involves a definition of the environmental flow by filtering of the misplaced tropical cyclone circulation in the (old) objective analysis, the generation of a new, correctly located and intense symmetric vortex, and the construction of vortex asymmetries by requiring that the observed motion be the vector sum of the environmental flow and the asymmetric flow. The subsequent initialization for fine-mesh prediction is carried out using 24 h of diabatic, dynamical nudging throug...

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