LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions.

[1]  Karl-Otto Wenkel,et al.  Modelling soil–crop interactions with AGROSIM model family , 2007 .

[2]  W. Mirschel,et al.  Testing farm management options as climate change adaptation strategies using the MONICA model , 2014 .

[3]  K. C. Kersebaum,et al.  Application of a simple management model to simulate water and nitrogen dynamics , 1995 .

[4]  Ralph H. Sprague,et al.  Decision Support for Management , 1995 .

[5]  Kurt Christian Kersebaum,et al.  Müncheberg field trial data set for agro-ecosystem model validation , 2007 .

[6]  M. Bindi,et al.  Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy , 2002 .

[7]  Martin Volk,et al.  A SDSS-based Ecological-economic Modelling Approach for Integrated River Basin Management on Different Scale Levels – The Project FLUMAGIS , 2007 .

[8]  Carlo Giupponi,et al.  Environmental decision support systems: Current issues, methods and tools , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[9]  Hilmar Schwärzel.  Untersuchungen zu Kriterien der Standort- und Gehölzauswahl bei extensiven Anpflanzungen von Obstbäumen , 2000 .

[10]  Michael F. Goodchild,et al.  Spatial decision support systems: a research agenda , 1989 .

[11]  Ralf Wieland,et al.  Considering cost accountancy items in crop production simulations under climate change , 2014 .

[12]  Daniel J. Power,et al.  Decision Support Systems: Concepts and Resources for Managers , 2002 .

[13]  Frank-M. Chmielewski,et al.  PHENOLOGY AND AGRICULTURE , 2003 .

[14]  Keith Matthews,et al.  Wither Agricultural DSS? , 2005 .

[15]  M. Trnka,et al.  Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: A comparison of eight crop growth models , 2011 .

[16]  Jean-Louis Roujean,et al.  Past and future scenarios of the effect of carbon dioxide on plant growth and transpiration for three vegetation types of southwestern France , 2007 .

[17]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Environmental decision support systems (EDSS) development - Challenges and best practices , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[18]  Lachlan T. H. Newham,et al.  Stakeholder participation in modelling for integrated catchment assessment and management: An Australian case study , 2007 .

[19]  Efraim Turban,et al.  Decision support systems and intelligent systems , 1997 .

[20]  Armin Werner,et al.  Model for calculating grassland yields and forage quality in North-East Germany on the basis of site and management characteristics , 2005 .

[21]  Paul J. Densham,et al.  Spatial decision support systems , 1991 .

[22]  J. Möhring,et al.  Long-term yield and weed response to conservation and stubble tillage in SW Germany , 2012 .

[23]  U. Karstens,et al.  A comprehensive model inter-comparison study investigating the water budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP period , 2001 .

[24]  Wilfried Hierold,et al.  The derivation of grassland vegetation types on the basis of site and land use characteristics , 2005 .

[25]  Ron Janssen,et al.  Why are spatial decision support systems not used? Some experiences from the Netherlands , 2003, Comput. Environ. Urban Syst..

[26]  K. Kersebaum.  Modelling nitrogen dynamics in soil–crop systems with HERMES , 2007, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems.

[27]  A. Kirilenko,et al.  Chapter Sixteen Regional Models of Intermediate Complexity (REMICs) – A New Direction in Integrated Landscape Modelling , 2008 .

[28]  Brett A. Bryan,et al.  CREDOS: A Conservation Reserve Evaluation And Design Optimisation System , 2007, Environmental Modelling & Software.

[29]  Kurt Christian Kersebaum,et al.  Modelling water and nutrient dynamics in soil-crop systems: a comparison of simulation models applied on common data sets. , 2007 .

[30]  W. Enke,et al.  A novel scheme to derive optimized circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes , 2005 .

[31]  K. Kersebaum,et al.  Modelling nitrogen dynamics in a plant-soil system with a simple model for advisory purposes , 1991, Fertilizer research.

[32]  Dominic Moran,et al.  Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation , 2010 .

[33]  Rajesh S. Prasad,et al.  A Decision Support System for Agriculture Using Natural Language Processing (ADSS) , 2008 .

[34]  V. I. Gertsev,et al.  Structure of the unified ichthyological prognosis , 1996 .

[35]  Ralf Wieland,et al.  Experience from the Use of the Interactive Model- and GIS-based Information and Decision Support System LandCaRe-DSS for the Development of Economic Effective Application Strategies of Agriculture to Climate Change , 2011, HAICTA.

[36]  A. Hense,et al.  The Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) , 2008 .

[37]  I. A. Ademiluyi,et al.  Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) and Sustainable Development of the Third World , 2009 .

[38]  Martin Volk,et al.  Pimp Your Landscape: A Tool for Qualitative Evaluation of the Effects of Regional Planning Measures on Ecosystem Services , 2010, Environmental management.

[39]  Ramanathan Sugumaran,et al.  Spatial Decision Support Systems: Principles and Practices , 2010 .

[40]  Brian S. McIntosh,et al.  A review of the factors which influence the use and usefulness of information systems , 2009, Environ. Model. Softw..

[41]  Frank Kreienkamp,et al.  An impact-oriented classification method for atmospheric patterns , 2010 .

[42]  P. Grundmann,et al.  Responses of agricultural bioenergy sectors in Brandenburg (Germany) to climate, economic and legal changes: An application of Holling's adaptive cycle , 2012 .

[43]  Martin Volk,et al.  How Can We Make Progress with Decision Support Systems in Landscape and River Basin Management? Lessons Learned from a Comparative Analysis of Four Different Decision Support Systems , 2010, Environmental management.

[44]  G. Coupland,et al.  Response of plant development to environment: control of flowering by daylength and temperature. , 2000, Current opinion in plant biology.

[45]  W. Mirschel,et al.  The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics , 2011 .

[46]  Jacek Malczewski,et al.  GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis , 1999 .

[47]  K. C. Kersebaum,et al.  Site-specific impacts of climate change on wheat production across regions of Germany using different CO2 response functions , 2014 .

[48]  J. Pospíšilová,et al.  Development of Water Stress under Increased Atmospheric CO2 Concentration , 1999, Biologia Plantarum.

[49]  M. Rivington,et al.  Investigating climate change impacts and adaptation options using integrated assessment methods , 2009 .

[50]  Kurt Christian Kersebaum,et al.  Modelling water and nutrient dynamics in soil-crop systems : proceedings of the workshop on "Modelling water and nutrient dynamics in soil-crop systems" held on 14-16 June 2004 in Müncheberg, Germany , 2007 .

[51]  David Atkinson,et al.  Temperature, plant development and crop yields , 1996 .

[52]  B. E. Janes.  Effect of carbon dioxide, osmotic potential of nutrient solution, and light intensity on transpiration and resistance to flow of water in pepper plants. , 1970, Plant physiology.

[53]  M. Trnka,et al.  Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: A comparison of nine crop models , 2012 .

[54]  A. Menzel,et al.  Temperature and Plant Development: Phenology and Seasonality , 2007 .

[55]  P. Keenan.  Spatial decision support systems , 2002 .

[56]  Johannes Franke,et al.  Effects of recent climate trends on the distribution of potential natural vegetation in Central Germany , 2007, International journal of biometeorology.

[57]  Justyna Czemiel Berndtsson,et al.  Influence of different activities on water quality in a small basin , 2006 .

[58]  W. H. Wischmeier,et al.  Predicting rainfall erosion losses : a guide to conservation planning , 1978 .

[59]  M. Rivington,et al.  An integrated assessment approach to conduct analyses of climate change impacts on whole-farm systems , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..