Representing convective organization in prediction models by a hybrid strategy

The mesoscale organization of precipitating convection is highly relevant to next-generation global numerical weather prediction models, which will have an intermediate horizontal resolution (grid spacing about 10 km). A primary issue is how to represent dynamical mechanisms that are conspicuously absent from contemporary convective parameterizations. A hybrid parameterization of mesoscale convection is developed, consisting of convective parameterization and explicit convectively driven circulations. This kind of problem is addressed for warm-season convection over the continental United States, although it is argued to have more general application. A hierarchical strategy is adopted: cloud-systemresolving model simulations represent the mesoscale dynamics of convective organization explicitly and intermediate resolution simulations involve the hybrid approach. Numerically simulated systems are physically interpreted by a mechanistic dynamical model of organized propagating convection. This model is a formal basis for approximating mesoscale convective organization (stratiform heating and mesoscale downdraft) by a first-baroclinic heating couplet. The hybrid strategy is implemented using a predictor–corrector strategy. Explicit dynamics is the predictor and the first-baroclinic heating couplet the corrector. The corrector strengthens the systematically weak mesoscale downdrafts that occur at intermediate resolution. When introduced to the Betts–Miller– Janjic convective parameterization, this new hybrid approach represents the propagation and dynamical structure of organized precipitating systems. Therefore, the predictor–corrector hybrid approach is an elementary practical framework for representing organized convection in models of intermediate resolution.

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