Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application

We suggest that the conscious use of information that is “hidden” in distinct structures in nature itself and in data extracted from nature (=pattern) during the process of modeling (=pattern-oriented modeling) can substantially improve models in ecological application and conservation. Observed patterns, such as time-series patterns and spatial patterns of presence/absence in habitat patches, contain a great deal of data on scales, site-history, parameters and processes. Use of these data provides criteria for aggregating the biological information in the model, relates the model explicitly to the relevant scales of the system, facilitates the use of helpful techniques of indirect parameter estimation with independent data, and helps detect underlying ecological processes. Additionally, pattern-oriented models produce comparative predictions that can be tested in the field. We developed a step-by-step protocol for pattern-oriented modeling and illustrate the potential of this protocol by discussing three pattern-oriented population models: (1) a population viability analysis for brown bears (Ursusarctos) in northern Spain using time-series data on females with cubs of the year to adjust unknown model parameters; (2) a savanna model for detecting underlying ecological processes from spatial patterns of tree distribution; and (3) the incidence function model of metapopulation dynamics as an example of process integration and model generalization. We conclude that using the pattern-oriented approach to its full potential will require a major paradigm shift in the strategies of modeling and data collection, and we argue that more emphasis must be placed on observing and documenting relevant patterns in addition to attempts to obtain direct estimates of model parameters.

[1]  A. Starfield.  A pragmatic approach to modeling for wildlife management , 1997 .

[2]  Amy W. Ando,et al.  On the Use of Demographic Models of Population Viability in Endangered Species Management , 1998 .

[3]  Graeme Caughley,et al.  Directions in conservation biology , 1994 .

[4]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model selection and multimodel inference : a practical information-theoretic approach , 2003 .

[5]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Long‐Term Dynamics in a Metapopulation of the American Pika , 1998, The American Naturalist.

[6]  Hartvig Christie,et al.  EFFECTS OF DENSITY‐DEPENDENT AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES ON THE REGULATION OF COD POPULATIONS , 2001 .

[7]  Karin Frank,et al.  Pattern-oriented modelling in population ecology , 1996 .

[8]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  Dealing with Uncertainty in Spatially Explicit Population Models , 2004, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[9]  Kirk A. Moloney,et al.  Determining Process Through Pattern: Reality or Fantasy? , 1993 .

[10]  M. Gilpin,et al.  Metapopulation Biology: Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution , 1997 .

[11]  S. Levin.  The problem of pattern and scale in ecology , 1992 .

[12]  S. I. Rubinow,et al.  Some mathematical problems in biology , 1975 .

[13]  Kirk A. Moloney,et al.  Detecting process from snapshot pattern: lessons from tree spacing in the southern Kalahari , 1999 .

[14]  Kirk A. Moloney,et al.  Spatially-explicit vegetation models : what have we learned ? , 2002 .

[15]  M. Boyce.  Population Viability Analysis , 1992 .

[16]  Stephen H. Vessey,et al.  THE EFFECT OF DENSITY DEPENDENCE AND WEATHER ON POPULATION SIZE OF A POLYVOLTINE SPECIES , 1998 .

[17]  G. Harrison,et al.  Comparing Predator‐Prey Models to Luckinbill's Experiment with Didinium and Paramecium , 1995 .

[18]  Jacob Weiner,et al.  On the Practice of Ecology , 1995 .

[19]  David Claessen,et al.  Dwarfs and Giants: Cannibalism and Competition in Size‐Structured Populations , 2000, The American Naturalist.

[20]  V. Grimm.  Ten years of individual-based modelling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future? , 1999 .

[21]  Florian Jeltsch,et al.  From snapshot information to long-term population dynamics of Acacias by a simulation model , 2000, Plant Ecology.

[22]  Bernd Blasius,et al.  Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems , 1999, Nature.

[23]  Cheryl J. Briggs,et al.  What causes generation cycles in populations of stored-product moths? , 2000 .

[24]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  ESTIMATING THE PARAMETERS OF SURVIVAL AND MIGRATION OF INDIVIDUALS IN METAPOPULATIONS , 2000 .

[25]  K Shea,et al.  Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control. , 1998, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[26]  David B. Lindenmayer,et al.  TESTING A SIMULATION MODEL FOR POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS , 2000 .

[27]  S. Wood,et al.  Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories. , 1994, Ecological monographs.

[28]  Trevor C. Bailey,et al.  Interactive Spatial Data Analysis , 1995 .

[29]  Florian Jeltsch,et al.  From pattern to practice: a scaling-down strategy for spatially explicit modelling illustrated by the spread and control of rabies , 1999 .

[30]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS: EFFECTS OF HABITAT QUALITY AND LANDSCAPE STRUCTURE , 1998 .

[31]  C. S. Holling,et al.  STABILITY OF SEMI-ARID SAVANNA GRAZING SYSTEMS , 1981 .

[32]  Gary K. Meffe,et al.  Principles of Conservation Biology , 1995 .

[33]  Volker Grimm,et al.  Individual-based modelling and ecological theory: synthesis of a workshop , 1999 .

[34]  N. Stenseth,et al.  Cycles and trends in cod populations. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[35]  Martin Drechsler.  A model-based decision aid for species protection under uncertainty , 2000 .

[36]  R. Macarthur.  The Problem of Pattern and Scale in Ecology: The Robert H. MacArthur Award Lecture , 2005 .

[37]  N. Johnson,et al.  Ecological stewardship : a common reference for ecosystem management , 1999 .

[38]  L. Oksanen,et al.  Are lemmings prey or predators? , 2000, Nature.

[39]  A. E. Irish,et al.  Modelling freshwater phytoplankton communities: an exercise in validation , 2000 .

[40]  R M Nisbet,et al.  Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community , 2001, Nature.

[41]  Hugh P. Possingham,et al.  Genetics, Demography and Viability of Fragmented Populations: Population viability analysis for conservation: the good, the bad and the undescribed , 2000 .

[42]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  PATCH OCCUPANCY MODELS OF METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS: EFFICIENT PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING IMPLICIT STATISTICAL INFERENCE , 1999 .

[43]  B. Kendall,et al.  WHY DO POPULATIONS CYCLE? A SYNTHESIS OF STATISTICAL AND MECHANISTIC MODELING APPROACHES , 1999 .

[44]  F. Cotterill.  Principles of Conservation Biology, 2nd Edition , 1999, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[45]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  The equilibrium assumption in estimating the parameters of metapopulation models. , 2000 .

[46]  Kirk A. Moloney,et al.  Modelling the impact of small‐scale heterogeneities on tree—grass coexistence in semi‐arid savannas , 1998 .

[47]  David B. Lindenmayer,et al.  TESTING SPATIAL PVA MODELS OF AUSTRALIAN TREECREEPERS (AVES: CLIMACTERIDAE) IN FRAGMENTED FOREST , 2000 .

[48]  Renato Casagrandi,et al.  A mesoscale approach to extinction risk in fragmented habitats , 1999, Nature.

[49]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  A Simulation Model for Shrub Ecosystem in the Semiarid Karoo, South Africa , 1995 .

[50]  C. Wissel,et al.  Pattern formation triggered by rare events: lessons from the spread of rabies , 1997, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[51]  A. Harcourt,et al.  Population Viability Estimates: Theory and Practice for a Wild Gorilla Population , 1995 .

[52]  Karin Johst,et al.  The effect of dispersal on local population dynamics , 1997 .

[53]  Paul Beier,et al.  Population viability analysis. , 2016 .

[54]  Simon N. Wood,et al.  PARTIALLY SPECIFIED ECOLOGICAL MODELS , 2001 .

[55]  I. Hanski,et al.  Evolution of Migration Rate in a Spatially Realistic Metapopulation Model , 2001, The American Naturalist.

[56]  I. Hanski.  A Practical Model of Metapopulation Dynamics , 1994 .

[57]  J. Day,et al.  Testing the Accuracy of Population Viability Analysis , 2001 .

[58]  L. Scott Mills,et al.  A Useful Role for Theory in Conservation , 1994 .

[59]  Ilkka Hanski,et al.  Metapopulation dynamics : empirical and theoretical investigations , 1991 .

[60]  Steven F. Railsback,et al.  ANALYSIS OF HABITAT‐SELECTION RULES USING ANINDIVIDUAL‐BASED MODEL , 2002 .

[61]  William F. Morris,et al.  DETECTING POPULATION‐LEVEL CONSEQUENCES OF ONGOING ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WITHOUT LONG‐TERM MONITORING , 1999 .

[62]  E. David Ford,et al.  Scientific Method for Ecological Research , 2000 .

[63]  E. David Ford,et al.  MULTI-CRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF ECOLOGICAL PROCESS MODELS , 1999 .

[64]  Florian Jeltsch,et al.  Tree Spacing and Coexistence in Semiarid Savannas , 1996 .

[65]  R. Hilborn,et al.  The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data , 1997 .

[66]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  ASSESSING THE RISK OF EXTINCTION FOR THE BROWN BEAR (URSUS ARCTOS) IN THE CORDILLERA CANTABRICA, SPAIN , 1998 .

[67]  Volker Grimm,et al.  MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND UNDERSTANDING IN ECOLOGY , 1994 .