Sectoral marginal abatement cost curves: implications for mitigation pledges and air pollution co-benefits for Annex I countries

Using the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, we derived Annex I marginal abatement cost curves for the years 2020 and 2030 for three World Energy Outlook baseline scenarios (2007–2009) of the International Energy Agency. These cost curves are presented by country, by greenhouse gas and by sector. They are available for further inter-country comparisons in the GAINS Mitigation Efforts Calculator—a free online tool. We illustrate the influence of the baseline scenario on the shape of mitigation cost curves, and identify key low cost options as well as no-regret priority investment areas for the years 2010–2030. Finally, we show the co-effect of GHG mitigation on the emissions of local air pollutants and argue that these co-benefits offer strong local incentives for mitigation.

[1]  Fabian Wagner,et al.  The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) , 2005 .

[2]  R. Hinde,et al.  Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action Collective Action , 2010 .

[3]  J. Bruinsma.  World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030: An Fao Perspective , 2002 .

[4]  Jens Borken-Kleefeld,et al.  GHG mitigation potentials and costs in the transport sector of Annex I countries: methodology , 2009 .

[5]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[6]  Aie.  World Energy Outlook 2007 , 2007 .

[7]  Peter Holmes Kobos,et al.  Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy , 2004 .

[8]  Axel Michaelowa,et al.  Policies, Instruments and Cooperative Arrangements , 2007 .

[9]  A. Tohka.  The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: HFC, PFC AND SF6 , 2005 .

[10]  Giorgio Simbolotti,et al.  Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 , 2008 .

[11]  T. Kram,et al.  Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials , 2009 .

[12]  David Johnson.  Australia's low pollution future: the economics of climate change mitigation , 2008 .

[13]  Edward Vine,et al.  An international survey of the energy service company (ESCO) industry , 2005 .

[14]  Zbigniew Klimont,et al.  GHG Mitigation Potentials from Energy Use and Industrial Sources in Annex I Countries: Methodology , 2009 .

[15]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Cost and performance of fossil fuel power plants with CO2 capture and storage , 2007 .

[16]  Toshihiko Masui,et al.  Human-Induced Climate Change: Climate policy assessment using the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model , 2007 .

[17]  Bert Saveyn,et al.  Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models , 2009 .

[18]  L. Hoeglund-Isaksson,et al.  The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Methane (CH4) , 2005 .

[19]  Wilfried Winiwarter,et al.  The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Nitrous Oxide (N2O) , 2005 .

[20]  N. H. Ravindranath,et al.  2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories , 2006 .

[21]  Ernst Worrell,et al.  World Best Practice Energy Intensity Values for SelectedIndustrial Sectors , 2007 .

[22]  J. Rogelj,et al.  The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C? A preliminary assessment , 2010 .

[23]  M. Thring.  World Energy Outlook , 1977 .

[24]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[25]  Aie.  World Energy Outlook 2009 , 2000 .

[26]  Jens Borken-Kleefeld,et al.  GAINS Asia. Scenarios for cost-effective control of air pollution and greenhouse gases in China , 2008 .

[27]  Markus Amann,et al.  GHG Mitigation Potentials in Annex I Countries. Comparison of Model Estimates for 2020 , 2009 .

[28]  Brian C. O'Neill,et al.  The emissions gap report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2° C or 1.5° C? , 2010 .

[29]  S. Messner,et al.  Endogenized technological learning in an energy systems model , 1997 .

[30]  A. Chambers,et al.  World Energy Outlook 2008 , 2008 .