Residential carbon emission embedded in China's inter-provincial population migration

Population migration embodies virtual residential energy consumption and carbon transfer from the origin to the destination. Based on the differences of the per capita levels between the sending-out origins and arriving-in destinations, we develop a model to estimate the inter-spatial transfer flows of residential carbon emissions, broken down by rural-to-urban, rural-to-rural, urban-to-rural and urban-to-urban flows. The net value of transfer-in and transfer-out residential carbon emission contributes to the change of the whole carbon emission. Using the latest census data and energy balance sheet in 2010, China's inter-provincial residential carbon emission flows embedded in the population migration were calculated and visualized. We found that China's non-Hukou migration increased the national total residential carbon emission. The largest transfer flows were mainly from central to eastern China. The northern provinces were also distinct destinations due to the high-carbon energy structure. The regional difference of residential energy consumption structures, the unbalanced regional economic development and origin-to-destination interaction were the main influencing factors. To promote low-carbon and environment-friendly urbanization, the energy optimization policy should be enhanced in the identified regions, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin area.

[1]  J. Squalli.  Immigration and environmental emissions: A U.S. county-level analysis , 2009 .

[2]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Influence of trade on national CO2 emissions , 2005 .

[3]  Qin Zhu,et al.  Calculation and decomposition of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China based on the input–output model , 2012 .

[4]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Carbon footprint of nations: a global, trade-linked analysis. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[5]  Shenggang Ren,et al.  The effects of urbanization, consumption ratio and consumption structure on residential indirect CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis , 2015 .

[6]  K. Chan,et al.  The Hukou System and Rural-Urban Migration in China: Processes and Changes , 1999, The China Quarterly.

[7]  Jianfa Shen.  Increasing internal migration in China from 1985 to 2005: Institutional versus economic drivers , 2013 .

[8]  Yong Geng,et al.  Determinants of stagnating carbon intensity in China , 2014 .

[9]  Andrew Wyckoff,et al.  Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods , 2003 .

[10]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  The impacts of migrant workers consumption on energy use and CO2 emissions in China , 2016, Natural Hazards.

[11]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2 emission: An empirical analysis of China's residents , 2007 .

[12]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  China’s carbon emissions from urban and rural households during 1992–2007 , 2011 .

[13]  Zheng Wang,et al.  Energy structure change and carbon emission trends in China , 2016 .

[14]  J. Stillwell,et al.  The IMAGE Studio: A Tool for Internal Migration Analysis and Modelling , 2014 .

[15]  Muhd Zaimi Abd Majid,et al.  A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries) , 2015 .

[16]  Jesper Munksgaard,et al.  CO2 accounts for open economies: producer or consumer responsibility? , 2001 .

[17]  R. Hoesly.  Implications of Mobility, Population Shifts, and Growth for Metropolitan Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Planning , 2014 .

[18]  Soumyananda Dinda,et al.  Carbon Dioxide Emission and Income: A Temporal Analysis of Cross- Country Distributional Patterns , 2008 .

[19]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  Unequal household carbon footprints in China , 2017 .

[20]  Zhanming Chen,et al.  Characteristics of residential energy consumption in China: Findings from a household survey , 2014 .

[21]  W. Zhou,et al.  A Research on Predicting Amount of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of the Urban and Rural Population in China , 2011 .

[22]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  CO2 Multipliers in Multi-region Input-Output Models , 2004 .

[23]  K. Chan.  Migration and development in China: trends, geography and current issues , 2012 .

[24]  Guizhen Ma.  The Environmental Impact of Immigration in the United States , 2020 .

[25]  Zhang Zhiqiang,et al.  Household CO 2 emissions: An assessment based a large sample survey in China , 2018 .

[26]  J. L. Puliafito,et al.  Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions , 2008 .

[27]  Richard Schmalensee,et al.  World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 19502050 , 1998, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[28]  Valerie J. Karplus,et al.  Interprovincial migration and the stringency of energy policy in China , 2016 .

[29]  Rajen Mookerjee,et al.  Population growth and global CO2 emissions : a secular perspective , 1996 .

[30]  Zeng Ming,et al.  Review on transaction status and relevant policies of southern route in China's West–East Power Transmission , 2013 .

[31]  G. Abel,et al.  Quantifying Global International Migration Flows , 2014, Science.

[32]  Jianfeng Zhao,et al.  Does urbanization lead to more direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from China during 1996–2012 , 2015 .

[33]  T. Zhao,et al.  Changes of energy-related GHG emissions in China: An empirical analysis from sectoral perspective , 2014 .

[34]  C. Hendrickson,et al.  Energy and Emissions from U.S. Population Shifts and Implications for Regional GHG Mitigation Planning. , 2015, Environmental science & technology.

[35]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  The impact of household consumption on energy use and CO 2 emissions in China , 2011 .

[36]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  Residential carbon emission evolutions in urban-rural divided China: An end-use and behavior analysis , 2013 .

[37]  S. Kaneko,et al.  The effects of internal migration on residential energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study in Hanoi , 2013 .

[38]  Chunsheng Yao,et al.  Analysis of rural residential energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions in China , 2012 .

[39]  Xiaoli Zhao,et al.  Residential energy consumption in urban China: A decomposition analysis , 2012 .

[40]  Philippe Ciais,et al.  Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China , 2017, Science Advances.

[41]  Zhenshan Yang,et al.  The Influence of Income, Lifestyle, and Green Spaces on Interregional Migration: Policy Implications for China , 2017 .

[42]  Yu Zhu.  China's floating population and their settlement intention in the cities: Beyond the Hukou reform , 2007 .

[43]  K. Chan,et al.  Hukou and non-hukou migrations in China: comparisons and contrasts. , 1999, International journal of population geography : IJPG.

[44]  Qin Zhu,et al.  The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008 , 2012 .

[45]  Maria Jesus Herrerias,et al.  Residential energy consumption: A convergence analysis across Chinese regions , 2017 .

[46]  Xingping Zhang,et al.  Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China , 2009 .

[47]  E. Kraly.  Immigration and environment: A framework for establishing a shape possible relationship , 1998 .