Sufficient and necessary conditions for perpetual multi-assets exchange options

This paper considers the general problem of optimal timing of the exchange of the sum of n Ito-diffusions for the sum of m others (e.g., the optimal time to exchange a geometric Brownian motion for a geometric mean reverting process). We first contribute to the literature by providing analytical sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for optimal stopping (i.e. sub- and super- sets of the stopping region) for some sub-cases of the general problem. We then exhibit a connection between the problem of finding sufficient conditions for optimal stopping and linear programming. This connection provides a unified approach which does not only allow to recover previous analytically determinable subsets of the stopping region, but also allows to characterize (more complex) subsets of the stopping region that do not have an analytical expression. In the particular case where all assets are geometric Brownian motions, this connection gives us new insights. In particular, it simplifies the expression of the subset of the stopping region identified by Nishide and Rogers (2011). Our numerical examples finally confirms the good behavior of the candidate investment rule introduced by Gahungu and Smeers (2011) for this particular case, which seems to comfort a conjecture that their rule might be optimal.

[1]  E. Prescott,et al.  Investment Under Uncertainty , 1971 .

[2]  R. McDonald,et al.  The Value of Waiting to Invest , 1982 .

[3]  Gunnar Stensland,et al.  On optimal timing of investment when cost components are additive and follow geometric diffusions , 1992 .

[4]  G. Metcalf,et al.  Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion , 1995 .

[5]  Egon Balas,et al.  programming: Properties of the convex hull of feasible points * , 1998 .

[6]  Bernt Øksendal,et al.  Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions , 1998, Finance Stochastics.

[7]  J. Huriot,et al.  Economics of Cities , 2000 .

[8]  Daniel Bienstock,et al.  Potential Function Methods for Approximately Solving Linear Programming Problems: Theory and Practice , 2002 .

[9]  R. Amir Supermodularity and Complementarity in Economics: An Elementary Survey , 2003 .

[10]  Laurence A. Wolsey,et al.  Integration of AI and OR Techniques in Constraint Programming for Combinatorial Optimization Problems, 4th International Conference, CPAIOR 2007, Brussels, Belgium, May 23-26, 2007, Proceedings , 2007, CPAIOR.

[11]  Svetlana Boyarchenko,et al.  Optimal Stopping Made Easy , 2007 .

[12]  Jacques-François Thisse,et al.  Economic Geography: The Integration of Regions and Nations , 2008 .

[13]  Dimitris Korobilis,et al.  VAR Forecasting Using Bayesian Variable Selection , 2009 .

[14]  Svetlana Boyarchenko,et al.  Irreversible Decisions under Uncertainty: Optimal Stopping Made Easy , 2010 .

[15]  J. Dávila,et al.  Implementing Steady State Efficiency in Overlapping Generations Economies with Environmental Externalities , 2014 .

[16]  M. Jünger,et al.  50 Years of Integer Programming 1958-2008 - From the Early Years to the State-of-the-Art , 2010 .

[17]  Ana Mauleon,et al.  Myopic or Farsighted? An Experiment on Network Formation , 2011 .

[18]  Per J. Agrell,et al.  Dynamic joint investments in supply chains under information asymmetry , 2010 .

[19]  J. Hindriks,et al.  School autonomy and educational performance: within-country evidence , 2010 .

[20]  Paul Belleflamme,et al.  Industrial Organization: Markets and Strategies , 2010 .

[21]  Yves Smeers,et al.  Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions. A tentative based on smooth fit , 2011 .

[22]  Yuri Yatsenko,et al.  Sustainable Growth and Modernization Under Environmental Hazard and Adaptation , 2011 .

[23]  Pierre Pestieau,et al.  Social long-term care insurance and redistribution , 2011 .

[24]  T. Mayer,et al.  The Economics of Clusters: Lessons from the French Experience , 2011 .

[25]  Dimitris Korobilis,et al.  Hierarchical Shrinkage Priors for Dynamic Regressions with Many Predictors , 2011 .

[26]  Luc Bauwens,et al.  Marginal Likelihood for Markov-Switching and Change-Point GARCH Models , 2011 .

[27]  L. Rogers,et al.  OPTIMAL TIME TO EXCHANGE TWO BASKETS , 2011 .

[28]  Hiroshi Uno,et al.  Nested potentials and robust equilibria , 2011 .

[29]  Axel Pierru,et al.  Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price , 2011 .

[30]  Jacques-François Thisse,et al.  Monopolistic competition in general equilibrium: Beyond the CES , 2011 .

[31]  Axel Gosseries,et al.  The natalist bias of pollution control , 2012 .

[32]  Nicolas Gillis,et al.  Accelerated Multiplicative Updates and Hierarchical ALS Algorithms for Nonnegative Matrix Factorization , 2011, Neural Computation.

[33]  Jean-François Carpantier,et al.  Real exchanges rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal , 2012 .

[34]  Thierry Bréchet,et al.  The economics of airport noise: how to manage markets for noise licenses , 2012 .

[35]  Marc Fleurbaey,et al.  Inequality aversion and separability in social risk evaluation , 2013 .

[36]  Shlomo Weber,et al.  Stability and fairness in models with a multiple membership , 2011, International Journal of Game Theory.

[37]  Fred Schroyen Attitudes Towards Income Risk in the Presence of Quantity Constraints , 2013 .