Dealing with Uncertain Forecasts: A Policy Perspective

The current chapter makes an attempt to deal with the uncertain forecasts from the policy-oriented perspective of forecast users – decision makers. Its first part, Section 11.1, presents a brief introduction to the decision analysis from the Bayesian perspective. In this section, selected insights into decision making and attitudes to uncertainty are briefly discussed, together with Bayesian estimation and prediction in the decision-analytic approach. The presentation is illustrated with stylised examples concerning migration forecasts. The second part, Section 11.2, contains an overview of literature and discussion on the generic limits of predictions from the point of view of forecast users. Although the discussion is conducted in very general terms, pertaining to all types of socio-economic forecasts, its conclusion can be applied in particular to migration and population predictions. Finally, after exploring which policy questions can be answered by the forecasts, and how, an interactive approach to demographic forecasting is proposed, based on an increased role of the dialogue between forecasters and users.