Aspects ofCost-Risk Tradeoffs

Thepaperfocuses onoffshore failures andhistorical cost-risk tradeoffs, including societal and environmental consequences. Cost-benefit analysis haslongbeenusedbythe CorpsofEngineers todesign andjustify their levee systems. The 9th-19th and21st-21.2 editions ofAPIRP 2Abasedtheir selection ofoceanographic criteria ongeneric cost-risk analysis. Post- Cullen safety cases intheNorthSeausesuchconcepts asALARP andICAF.We examine thequestion ofhowwelltheyholdup whenthefailure consequences aremeasured inbillions ofdollars. I. INTRODUCTION Isthis subject politically incorrect? ... orabasic tenet of rational thought whosetimemaycomearound again?To RAND-type economists, this question should beano-brainer. We aretalking about lost opportunity being theresult ofano- risk safety culture. A 1967California poster proclaims "Man's origin isinthesea, andhereturns totheseaforrenewal." Itis areminder oflost opportunity. In1967, Shell waswildcat drilling offshore fromtheGolden Gate, andastronauts were breaking newbarriers withtheApollo system. Clearly there wasadifferent attitude... optimistic idealism versus today's post-modern cynicism.