Data Assimilation via Error Subspace Statistical Estimation.

Abstract Identical twin experiments are utilized to assess and exemplify the capabilities of error subspace statistical estimation (ESSE). The experiments consists of nonlinear, primitive equation–based, idealized Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front simulations. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons with an optimal interpolation (OI) scheme are made. Essential components of ESSE are illustrated. The evolution of the error subspace, in agreement with the initial conditions, dynamics, and data properties, is analyzed. The three-dimensional multivariate minimum variance melding in the error subspace is compared to the OI melding. Several advantages and properties of ESSE are discussed and evaluated. The continuous singular value decomposition of the nonlinearly evolving variations of variability and the possibilities of ESSE for dominant process analysis are illustrated and emphasized.

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