Determinants of bank profitability in the South Eastern European region

The aim of this study is to examine the profitability behaviour of bank-specific, industry-related and macroeconomic determinants, using an unbalanced panel dataset of South Eastern European (SEE) credit institutions over the period 1998-2002. The estimation results indicate that, with the exception of liquidity, all bank-specific determinants significantly affect bank profitability in the anticipated way. A key result is that the effect of concentration is positive, which provides evidence in support of the structure-conduct-performance hypothesis, even though some ambiguity arises given its interrelationship with the efficient-structure hypothesis. In contrast, a positive relationship between banking reform and profitability was not identified, whilst the picture regarding the macroeconomic determinants is mixed. The paper concludes with some remarks on the practicality and implementability of the findings.

[1]  W. Bartlett The Western Balkans , 2007 .

[2]  Allen N. Berger The Profit-Structure Relationship in Banking--Tests of Market-Power and Efficient-Structure Hypotheses , 1995 .

[3]  Yiannis Stournaras,et al.  Aggregate Supply and Demand, the Real Exchange Rate and Oil Price Denomination , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[4]  Stephen G. Hall,et al.  Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[5]  Eleni Angelopoulou,et al.  The Comparative Performance of Q-Type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[6]  John C. Panzar,et al.  TESTING FOR "MONOPOLY" EQUILIBRIUM* , 1987 .

[7]  Eiji Ogawa Comments on H. Genberg: “Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course? , 2006 .

[8]  E. Mamatzakis,et al.  Competition and concentration in the banking sector of the South Eastern European region , 2005 .

[9]  Panayotis Kapopoulos,et al.  Corporate Ownership Structure and Firm Performance: Evidence from Greek Firms , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[10]  S. Fries,et al.  Cost Efficiency of Banks in Transition: Evidence from 289 Banks in 15 Post-Communist Countries , 2005 .

[11]  Panayotis Kapopoulos,et al.  Does corporate ownership structure matter for economic growth? A cross-country analysis , 2009, Managerial and Decision Economics.

[12]  Timothy F. Bresnahan,et al.  Empirical studies of industries with market power , 1989 .

[13]  O. Issing,et al.  Europe’s hard fix: the Euro area , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[14]  D. Runkle,et al.  Size and performance of banking firms: Testing the predictions of theory , 1993 .

[15]  Ioannis Tsikripis,et al.  Regional Integration Challenges in South East Europe: Banking Sector Trends , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[16]  B. Baltagi,et al.  Econometric Analysis of Panel Data , 2020, Springer Texts in Business and Economics.

[17]  Enrique Alberola Comments on S. Edwards: “Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: a Latin American perspective” , 2006 .

[18]  Michael L. Smirlock Evidence on the (Non) Relationship between Concentration and Profitability in Banking , 1985 .

[19]  Irina I. Klytchnikova,et al.  Banking Crises in Transition Economies: Fiscal Costs and Related Issues , 1999 .

[20]  T. Beck,et al.  Bank Concentration and Crises , 2003 .

[21]  Philip Molyneux,et al.  Market structure and performance in Spanish banking , 1994 .

[22]  Douglas D. Evanoff,et al.  Reevaluation of the structure-conduct-performance paradigm in banking , 1988 .

[23]  acob,et al.  Cyclical patterns in profits , provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements * , 2003 .

[24]  P. Molyneux,et al.  Dynamics of Growth and Profitability in Banking , 2004 .

[25]  Stijn Claessens,et al.  How Does Foreign Entry Affect the Domestic Banking Market? , 1998 .

[26]  S. Fries,et al.  Banking Reform and Development in Transition Economies , 2001 .

[27]  David C. Wheelock,et al.  Why does bank performance vary across states , 1997 .

[28]  Sophocles N. Brissimis,et al.  Technical and allocative efficiency in European banking , 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[29]  Marc Flandreau,et al.  Comments on J. Williamson: “A worldwide system of reference rates” , 2006 .

[30]  Timothy F. Bresnahan,et al.  The oligopoly solution concept is identified , 1982 .

[31]  Sophocles N. Brissimis,et al.  Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability , 2008, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[32]  Richard N. Cooper,et al.  Proposal for a common currency among rich democracies , 2006 .

[33]  S. Miller,et al.  Portfolio mix and large-bank profitability in the USA , 1997 .

[34]  Heather D. Gibson,et al.  Capital Flows, Capital Account Liberalisation and the Mediterranean Countries , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[35]  Jeffrey M. Wooldridge,et al.  Solutions Manual and Supplementary Materials for Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data , 2003 .

[36]  H. Huizinga,et al.  Financial Structure and Bank Profitability , 2000 .

[37]  P. A. V. B. Swamy,et al.  Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports , 2008 .

[38]  Christos Papazoglou,et al.  Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Output Contraction Under Transition , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[39]  Sven W. Arndt Regional currency arrangements in North America , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[40]  Mario I. Blejer Comments on O. Issing: “Europe’s hard fix: the Euro area” , 2006 .

[41]  Michael J. Cooper,et al.  Evidence of predictability in the cross-section of bank stock returns , 2003 .

[42]  Sophocles N. Brissimis,et al.  Market Power, Innovative Activity and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[43]  R. Gilbert,et al.  Bank Market Structure and Competition: A Survey , 1984 .

[44]  H. Kawano Structure and Performance , 1980 .

[45]  J. Bikker,et al.  Trends in Competition and Profitability in the Banking Industry: A Basic Framework , 2005 .

[46]  Hans Genberg,et al.  Exchange-rate arrangements and financial integration in East Asia: on a collision course? , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[47]  Josef Christl,et al.  Regional currency arrangements: insights from Europe , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[48]  P. Bourke Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North America and Australia , 1989 .

[49]  P. Swamy,et al.  The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[50]  P. Molyneux,et al.  Determinants of European bank profitability: A note , 1992 .

[51]  Harold James,et al.  One world money, then and now , 2006 .

[52]  Thanasis N. Christodoulopoulos,et al.  Measuring Liquidity in the Greek Government Securities Market , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[53]  Barry Eichengreen,et al.  Greek Banking at the Dawn of the New Millennium , 2001 .

[54]  P. Molyneux Structure and performance in European banking. , 1993 .

[55]  Allen N. Berger,et al.  Competitive viability in banking: Scale, scope, and product mix economies , 1987 .

[56]  Joseph G. Haubrich,et al.  Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evolution in the Making , 2004 .

[57]  George A. Christodoulakis,et al.  Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility , 2006 .

[58]  John V. Duca,et al.  Developments affecting the profitability of commercial banks , 1990 .

[59]  John B. Williamson,et al.  A worldwide system of reference rates , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[60]  Allen N. Berger,et al.  The Effects of Megamergers on Efficiency and Prices: Evidence from a Bank Profit Function , 1997 .

[61]  F. Edwards,et al.  Managerial Objectives in Regulated Industries: Expense-Preference Behavior in Banking , 1977, Journal of Political Economy.

[62]  Gyoichi Iwata,et al.  Measurement of Conjectural Variations in Oligopoly , 1974 .

[63]  Sophocles N. Brissimis,et al.  Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[64]  George A. Christodoulakis,et al.  The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality under Asymmetric Preferences , 2005 .

[65]  Allen N. Berger The Relationship between Capital and Earnings in Banking. , 1995 .

[66]  A. Sarris,et al.  Modeling the Components of Market Discipline , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[67]  J. Roldos,et al.  Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[68]  Iftekhar Hasan,et al.  Bank performance, efficiency and ownership in transition countries , 2005 .

[69]  Timothy H. Hannan Foundations of the Structure-Conduct-Performance Paradigm in Banking , 1991 .

[70]  Gary W. Whalen Actual Competition, Potential Competition, and Bank Profitability in Rural Markets , 1988 .