The Limited Path Dependency of Precedent

INTRO DUCTIO N .................................................................................... 905 I. THE MYTH OF THE PATH DEPENDENCY OF PRECEDENT .......... 909 A. The Implications of Social Science Research Against Path Dependency ......................................... 909 B. The Major Critiques of Attitudinal and Rational Choice Models of the Court ...................................... 912 C. The Forecasting Study ............................................... 920 II. THE REQUISITE PROPERTIES OF PATH DEPENDENCY ............... 922 A. Path Dependency Requires Permanence ................. 923 B. Path Dependency Requires Sequentialism ............... 925 C. Path Dependency Requires Consistency .................. 928 D. Path Dependency Requires Compulsion .................. 931 E. Path Dependency Requires Predictability ................ 933 III. THE LIMITED PATH DEPENDENCY OF PRECEDENT IN CONSTITUTIONAL ADJUDICATION ........................................... 937 A. Constitutional Design and Legal Indeterminacy ..... 938 B. The Significance of the Distinction Between Constitutional and Common Law Adjudication ...... 941 C. The Significance of Rules and Standards ................. 946 D. The Constitutional Significance of Entrenchm ent ............................................................ 950 E. The Significance of Changes in the Court's C om position ............................................................... 952