The paper describes a method for the evaluation of slope instability for urban planning purposes, applied in the test area ‘Oltre Po Pavese’ (Regione Lombardia, Italy). A statistic and a probabilistic approach have been applied for the estimation of landslide activations and for the definition of potentially unstable areas. The displacement has been obtained through a simplified dynamic analysis, using deterministic methods: first the critical horizontal acceleration coefficient (Kc) has been evaluated, second the displacement has been calculated using the Kc values and the seismic input values, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Arias intensity (Ia), through empirical relationships between displacement and Ia values for different Kc values. The results can be used by the regional government to give to the municipalities of the area a guide for the selection of the zones to be studied with future and more detailed analyses.
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