Cortical prediction markets

We investigate cortical learning from the perspective of mechanism design. First, we show that discretizing standard models of neurons and synaptic plasticity leads to rational agents maximizing simple scoring rules. Second, our main result is that the scoring rules are proper, implying that neurons faithfully encode expected utilities in their synaptic weights and encode high-scoring outcomes in their spikes. Third, with this foundation in hand, we propose a biologically plausible mechanism whereby neurons backpropagate incentives which allows them to optimize their usefulness to the rest of cortex. Finally, experiments show that networks that backpropagate incentives can learn simple tasks.

[1]  G. Brier VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .

[2]  K. Arrow,et al.  EXISTENCE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM FOR A COMPETITIVE ECONOMY , 1954 .

[3]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Learning representations by back-propagating errors , 1986, Nature.

[4]  L. Abbott,et al.  Competitive Hebbian learning through spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity , 2000, Nature Neuroscience.

[5]  Wulfram Gerstner,et al.  Spiking Neuron Models , 2002 .

[6]  Wulfram Gerstner,et al.  Spiking Neuron Models: An Introduction , 2002 .

[7]  Pieter R. Roelfsema,et al.  Attention-Gated Reinforcement Learning of Internal Representations for Classification , 2005, Neural Computation.

[8]  R. Hanson,et al.  Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market , 2006 .

[9]  David M. Pennock,et al.  A Utility Framework for Bounded-Loss Market Makers , 2007, UAI.

[10]  Yoram Singer,et al.  A primal-dual perspective of online learning algorithms , 2007, Machine Learning.

[11]  L. Abbott,et al.  Limits on the memory storage capacity of bounded synapses , 2007, Nature Neuroscience.

[12]  K. Harris Stability of the fittest: organizing learning through retroaxonal signals , 2008, Trends in Neurosciences.

[13]  Yoav Shoham,et al.  Eliciting properties of probability distributions , 2008, EC '08.

[14]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research , 2008 .

[15]  R. Hanson,et al.  An experimental test of combinatorial information markets , 2009 .

[16]  Jennifer Wortman Vaughan,et al.  A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning , 2010, EC '10.

[17]  T. Sejnowski,et al.  Metabolic cost as a unifying principle governing neuronal biophysics , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[18]  Nathan Lay,et al.  Supervised Aggregation of Classifiers using Artificial Prediction Markets , 2010, ICML.

[19]  Jacob D. Abernethy,et al.  A Collaborative Mechanism for Crowdsourcing Prediction Problems , 2011, NIPS.

[20]  Amos J. Storkey,et al.  Machine Learning Markets , 2011, AISTATS.

[21]  Sophie Denève,et al.  Spike-Based Population Coding and Working Memory , 2011, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[22]  R. Hanson LOGARITHMIC MARKETS CORING RULES FOR MODULAR COMBINATORIAL INFORMATION AGGREGATION , 2012 .

[23]  Giulio Tononi,et al.  What can neurons do for their brain? Communicate selectivity with bursts , 2013, Theory in Biosciences.

[24]  David Balduzzi,et al.  Towards a learning-theoretic analysis of spike-timing dependent plasticity , 2012, NIPS.

[25]  Jacob D. Abernethy,et al.  A Characterization of Scoring Rules for Linear Properties , 2012, COLT.

[26]  Andrew Nere,et al.  A Neuromorphic Architecture for Object Recognition and Motion Anticipation Using Burst-STDP , 2012, PloS one.

[27]  G. Stanley Reading and writing the neural code , 2013, Nature Neuroscience.

[28]  Jennifer Wortman Vaughan,et al.  Efficient Market Making via Convex Optimization, and a Connection to Online Learning , 2013, TEAC.

[29]  David Balduzzi,et al.  Metabolic Cost as an Organizing Principle for Cooperative Learning , 2012, Adv. Complex Syst..