A Comparison of Selected Artificial Neural Networks that Help Auditors Evaluate Client Financial Viability

This study compares the performance of three artificial neural network (ANN) approaches—backpropagalion, categorical learning, and probabilistic neural network—as classification tools to assist and support auditor's judgment about a client's continued financial viability into the future (going concern status). ANN performance is compared on the basis of overall error rates and estimated relative costs of misclassificaticn (incorrectly classifying an insolvent firm as solvent versus classifying a solvent firm as insolvent). When only the overall error rate is considered, the probabilistic neural network is the most reliable in classification, followed by backpropagation and categorical learning network. When the estimated relative costs of misclassification are considered, the categorical learning network is the least costly, followed by backpropagation and probabilistic neural network.

[1]  Ingoo Han,et al.  An empirical investigation of some data effects on the classification accuracy of probit, ID3, and neural networks* , 1992 .

[2]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY , 1968 .

[3]  Bryan K. Church,et al.  Default on Debt Obligations and the Issuance of Going-concern Opinions , 1992 .

[4]  Jane F. Mutchler,et al.  A MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS OF THE AUDITORS GOING-CONCERN OPINION DECISION , 1985 .

[5]  Thomas Kida,et al.  The Effect Of Causality And Specificity On Data Use , 1984 .

[6]  H. Koh Model Predictions and Auditor Assessments of Going Concern Status , 1991 .

[7]  Pamela K. Coats,et al.  Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using a Neural Network Tool , 1993 .

[8]  Daniel Martin,et al.  Early warning of bank failure: A logit regression approach , 1977 .

[9]  Ken Wild,et al.  Reports on audited financial statements , 1999 .

[10]  F Jones,et al.  CURRENT TECHNIQUES IN BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION , 1987 .

[11]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction , 1990, 1990 IJCNN International Joint Conference on Neural Networks.

[12]  Linda M. Hooks A test of the stability of early warning models of bank failures , 1992 .

[13]  Stephen D. Smith,et al.  Financial panics, bank failures, and the role of regulatory policy , 1992 .

[14]  Thomas Kida AN INVESTIGATION INTO AUDITORS CONTINUITY AND RELATED QUALIFICATION JUDGMENTS , 1980 .

[15]  Carol Ezzell,et al.  Analytical techniques , 1988, Nature.

[16]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  Bankruptcy prediction using neural networks , 1994, Decis. Support Syst..

[17]  G. E. Pinches,et al.  Discriminant Analysis, Classification Results, and Financially Distressed P-L Insurers , 1977 .

[18]  Nicholas Dopuch,et al.  Abnormal stock returns associated with media disclosures of ‘subject to’ qualified audit opinions , 1986 .

[19]  William N. Dilla,et al.  Predictive Bankruptcy Judgments by Auditors: A Probabilistic Approach , 1991 .

[20]  Richard S. Barr,et al.  Predicting bank failure using DEA to quantify management quality , 1994 .

[21]  Laurence R. Paquette,et al.  Using a bankruptcy model in the auditing course: The evaluation of a company as a going concern , 1996 .

[22]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Learning internal representations by error propagation , 1986 .

[23]  Melody Y. Kiang,et al.  Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions , 1992 .

[24]  R. J. Elam,et al.  The effect of lease data on the predictive ability of financial ratios , 1975 .

[25]  Hian Chye Koh,et al.  THE SENSITIVITY OF OPTIMAL CUTOFF POINTS TO MISCLASSIFICATION COSTS OF TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS IN THE GOING‐CONCERN PREDICTION CONTEXT , 1992 .

[26]  W. Beaver Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure , 1966 .

[27]  J. Sinkey A MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF PROBLEM BANKS , 1975 .

[28]  Timothy B. Bell,et al.  Empirical Analysis of Audit Uncertainty Qualifications , 1991 .

[29]  J. Efrim Boritz,et al.  Effectiveness of neural network types for prediction of business failure , 1995 .

[30]  E. Altman,et al.  ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations , 1977 .

[31]  Mark Eugene Zmijewski Essays on corporate bankruptcy , 1983 .

[32]  Kurt Fanning,et al.  A Comparative Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks Using Financial Distress Prediction , 1994 .

[33]  Ram S. Sriram,et al.  A comparison of the relative costs of financial distress models: artificial neural networks, logit and multivariate discriminant analysis , 1997 .

[34]  Kenneth B. Schwartz,et al.  An empirical investigation of audit qualification decisions in the presence of going concern uncertainties , 1987 .

[35]  Larry N. Killough,et al.  The USE OF MULTIPLE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE GOING-CONCERN STATUS OF AN AUDIT CLIENT , 1990 .

[36]  Kenneth B. Schwartz,et al.  PREDICTING BANKRUPTCY FOR FIRMS IN FINANCIAL DISTRESS , 1990 .

[37]  Michelle M. Hamer Failure prediction: Sensitivity of classification accuracy to alternative statistical methods and variable sets , 1983 .

[38]  Fred C. Graham,et al.  Bank failure: an evaluation of the factors contributing to the failure of national banks , 1988 .

[39]  James A. Ohlson FINANCIAL RATIOS AND THE PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF BANKRUPTCY , 1980 .