Prospective study of atherosclerotic disease progression in the renal artery.

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of and the risk factors associated with progression of renal artery disease in individuals with atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis (ARAS). METHODS AND RESULTS Subjects with >/=1 ARAS were monitored with serial renal artery duplex scans. A total of 295 kidneys in 170 patients were monitored for a mean of 33 months. Overall, the cumulative incidence of ARAS progression was 35% at 3 years and 51% at 5 years. The 3-year cumulative incidence of renal artery disease progression stratified by baseline disease classification was 18%, 28%, and 49% for renal arteries initially classified as normal, <60% stenosis, and >/=60% stenosis, respectively (P=0.03, log-rank test). There were only 9 renal artery occlusions during the study, all of which occurred in renal arteries having >/=60% stenosis at the examination before the detection of occlusion. A stepwise Cox proportional hazards model included 4 baseline factors that were significantly associated with the risk of renal artery disease progression during follow-up: systolic blood pressure >/=160 mm Hg (relative risk [RR]=2.1; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.5), diabetes mellitus (RR=2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.3), and high-grade (>60% stenosis or occlusion) disease in either the ipsilateral (RR=1.9; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.0) or contralateral (RR=1.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.8) renal artery. CONCLUSIONS Although renal artery disease progression is a frequent occurrence, progression to total renal artery occlusion is not. The risk of renal artery disease progression is highest among individuals with preexisting high-grade stenosis in either renal artery, elevated systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus.