Application of the counterfactual method to assess of the local economic impact of a nuclear power station

Several studies have examined the local economic effects of nuclear power stations. However, their heterogeneity within countries and between countries indicate that one must be very cautious in drawing general conclusions about the positive and negative local economic effects of nuclear power stations over time. Using information about a specific nuclear facility in Spain and its zone of influence, we investigate the local economic impact of a nuclear facility by applying an infrequently used methodology called the “counterfactual” method. The purpose of this application of the counterfactual method is to establish what would have happened if the nuclear power plant had not been built where it was. This method permits observation of the impact of the nuclear power plant on the evolution of a set of variables whose influence is extremely important for the local area, such as the population, unemployment level, per capita income, and municipal governments’ revenues. Generalization of this method could offer the possibility of providing comparative results. However, the method must be complemented with other short-term approaches to provide a more specific analysis of the economic effects on the local actors involved and to offer incentives to policymakers to design and develop policies aimed at boosting economic activity in the area.