Climate and other scenarios disrupt priorities in several management perspectives

Abstract Climate vulnerability and adaptation assessments are increasingly typical of infrastructure agencies. In contrast to global emissions reductions, adaptation decision making tends to occur on smaller geographic scales and nearer time horizons. The supporting analyses are performed by local agencies with relatively sparse data and few resources. Recent efforts of the authors introduced scenario-based preferences to perform risk analysis for these agencies in a single perspective, updating management priorities when climate and non-climate stressors combine. On the other hand, a single perspective fails to account for the complexities of infrastructures, organizations, and stakeholders. Several perspectives should include asset management, project selection, policy-making, demography/geography, research and development, and others. This paper develops a framework to address several management perspectives, finding the implications of climate and other conditions to update agency priorities. The framework is demonstrated for a twenty-year transportation plan with approximately 600 square miles in the mid-Atlantic region of the USA. The demonstration includes that a scenario of climate combined with increased travel demand is relatively more influential across several perspectives, when considering climate both alone and in combination with each of economic recession, wear and tear, and ecosystem stressors.

[1]  Christopher W. Karvetski,et al.  Emergent conditions and multiple criteria analysis in infrastructure prioritization for developing countries , 2009 .

[2]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Multiple criteria decision analysis - an integrated approach , 2001 .

[3]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Research and Development Priorities for Energy Islanding of Military and Industrial Installations , 2013 .

[4]  Patrick D. Nunn,et al.  Sea Level Change , 2013 .

[5]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Relationships between Data Envelopment Analysis and Multicriteria Decision Analysis , 1996 .

[6]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Integration of Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning for Coastal Engineering and Climate Change , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[7]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems , 2013, Environment Systems & Decisions.

[8]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Climate change scenarios: risk and impact analysis for Alaska coastal infrastructure , 2011 .

[9]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Evaluating deep uncertainties in strategic priority‐setting with an application to facility energy investments , 2012, Syst. Eng..

[10]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion , 2011, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[11]  Zachary A. Collier,et al.  Multiscale approach to the security of hardware supply chains for energy systems , 2013, Environment Systems and Decisions.

[12]  Robert H. Somers,et al.  A new asymmetric measure of association for ordinal variables. , 1962 .

[13]  Larisa R.G. DeSantis,et al.  Sea‐level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA , 2007 .

[14]  Hans-Martin Füssel,et al.  Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research , 2007 .

[15]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Climate Change Influence on Priority Setting for Transportation Infrastructure Assets , 2013 .

[16]  Paulina Jaramillo,et al.  Potentials for sustainable transportation in cities to alleviate climate change impacts. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[17]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis , 2001 .

[18]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[19]  Anne Hammill,et al.  Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance , 2007 .

[20]  C. Lavalle,et al.  A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change , 2013 .

[21]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Quantifying the Influence of Climate Change to Priorities for Infrastructure Projects , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems.

[22]  Igor Linkov,et al.  Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations , 2011, Integrated environmental assessment and management.

[23]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[24]  E. Malone,et al.  Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures , 2004 .

[25]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Prioritizing Infrastructure Investments in Afghanistan with Multiagency Stakeholders and Deep Uncertainty of Emergent Conditions , 2012 .

[26]  James H. Lambert,et al.  Scenario‐based multiple criteria analysis for infrastructure policy impacts and planning , 2011 .

[27]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Value-Focused Brainstorming , 2012, Decis. Anal..

[28]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[29]  K. E. Anderson,et al.  Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region , 2009 .

[30]  Angela Wilkinson,et al.  Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change , 2014 .

[31]  L. Laurencelle.  Le tau et le tau-b de Kendall pour la corrélation de variables ordinales simples ou catégorielles , 2009 .

[32]  Nian Shong Chok.  PEARSON'S VERSUS SPEARMAN'S AND KENDALL'S CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS FOR CONTINUOUS DATA , 2010 .

[33]  C. Aall,et al.  Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway , 2006 .

[34]  B. McCarl,et al.  Effects of climate change on US grain transport , 2013 .

[35]  Valerie Belton,et al.  Multi-Criteria Problem Structuring and Analysis in a Value Theory Framework , 1999 .

[36]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Utility Independence and Preferences for Multiattributed Consequences , 1971, Oper. Res..

[37]  Peter C. Bishop,et al.  The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques , 2007 .

[38]  M. Ruth,et al.  Climate’s Long-term Impacts on Urban Infrastructures and Services: The Case of Metro Boston , 2006 .

[39]  E. Malone,et al.  Climate change vulnerability and resilience: current status and trends for Mexico , 2010 .

[40]  Richard J. T. Klein,et al.  Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: An Evolution of Conceptual Thinking , 2006 .

[41]  Frans Berkhout,et al.  Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments , 2013, Regional Environmental Change.

[42]  Paul Chinowsky,et al.  Estimating future costs for Alaska public infrastructure at risk from climate change , 2008 .

[43]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs , 1976 .