Assessing the potential for real-time urban flood forecasting based on a worldwide survey on data availability

This paper explores the potential for real-time urban flood forecasting based on literature and the results from an online worldwide survey with 176 participants. The survey investigated the use of data in urban flood management as well as the perceived challenges in data acquisition and its principal constraints in urban flood modelling. It was originally assumed that the lack of real-time urban flood forecasting systems is related to the lack of relevant data. Contrary to this assumption, the study found that a significant number of the participants have used some kind of data and that a possible explanation for so few cases is that urban flood managers or modellers (practitioners) may not be aware they have the means to make a pluvial flood forecast. This paper highlights that urban flood practitioners can make a flood forecast with the resources currently available.

[1]  Dragan Savic,et al.  Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas , 2014 .

[2]  Jim W. Hall,et al.  Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management , 2014 .

[3]  B. Russo,et al.  Real-time urban flood forecasting and modelling – a state of the art , 2013 .

[4]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting - an urban case study , 2013 .

[5]  A. Pathirana,et al.  Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage: a State-of- the-Art Review , 2013 .

[6]  Dragan Savic,et al.  Multi-layered coarse grid modelling in 2D urban flood simulations , 2012 .

[7]  A. Pathirana,et al.  Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems , 2012 .

[8]  Adrian J. Saul,et al.  Using probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts and NWP forecasts for flow prediction in urban catchments , 2012 .

[9]  Robert Goodwin,et al.  A GPRS-based Data Collection and Transmission for Flood Warning System: The Case of the Lower Mekong River Basin , 2012 .

[10]  J. P. Leitão,et al.  Urban drainage models for flood forecasting: 1D/1D, 1D/2D and hybrid models , 2011 .

[11]  Carlo Gualtieri,et al.  Urban Hydroinformatics. Data, Models and Decision Support for Integrated Urban Water Management , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[12]  Keith J. Beven,et al.  Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future?: An Introduction to Techniques for Uncertainty Estimation in Environmental Prediction , 2010 .

[13]  Philippe Gourbesville.  Data and hydroinformatics: new possibilities and challenges. , 2009 .

[14]  K. Beven.  Environmental Modelling , 2007 .

[15]  F. Pappenberger,et al.  Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis , 2006 .

[16]  Ayalew Kassahun,et al.  Quality assurance in model based water management - review of existing practice and outline of new approaches , 2005, Environ. Model. Softw..

[17]  P. Bates,et al.  Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale , 2005 .

[18]  I. Zawadzki,et al.  Precipitation forecast skill of numerical weather prediction models and radar nowcasts , 2005 .

[19]  M. Best,et al.  Representing urban areas within operational numerical weather prediction models , 2005 .

[20]  Guido Vaes,et al.  Towards a roadmap for use of radar rainfall data in urban drainage , 2004 .

[21]  S. Djordjević,et al.  Potential and limitations of 1D modelling of urban flooding , 2004 .

[22]  Alexis Berne,et al.  Temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall measurements required for urban hydrology , 2004 .

[23]  Emmanouil N. Anagnostou,et al.  Uncertainty Quantification of Mean-Areal Radar-Rainfall Estimates , 1999 .

[24]  Dušan Prodanović,et al.  An approach to simulation of dual drainage , 1999 .

[25]  Wolfgang Schilling,et al.  Rainfall data for urban hydrology: what do we need? , 1991 .