Metropolitan density, energy efficiency and carbon emissions: Multi-attribute tradeoffs and their policy implications

Abstract Of all the potential benefits of urban containment, compaction, and densification, just two are the central focus here: attainment of greater energy efficiency and reduction in carbon emissions. In cities these are largely associated with the transport and building sectors. This paper probes the form-efficiency relation in the transport sector across 57 census-defined urbanized areas in the United States in 2000. Thirty-six of the forty largest are included. Increase in core area population density is correlated with modest gain in energy efficiency in the urban transport sector and modest decrease in its carbon emissions. Densification's lagged effects related to travel rationalization and growth in transit receptivity may increase overall metro transport energy efficiency beyond the degree revealed here. These impacts are associated with two off-setting negative externalities: (1) diminished housing affordability, and (2) increased roadway congestion. Each may moderate over time. Such effects are non-additive, owing to a difference of metrics. Elevated CAFE standards provoking new transport technologies may reduce total energy consumption and associated emissions ceteris paribus, lessening densification's marginal efficiency payoff while magnifying the significance of densification's opportunity costs. Categories of policy interventions to promote metro-scale energy efficiencies and emissions reductions, with and without urban densification, conclude the paper.

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