Great Expectations Projections of Nuclear Power Around the World

In its 2008 edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period to 2030, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has again revised its projections for nuclear power upwards. Every year since 1981 the IAEA has published 2 updated projections for the world's nuclear power generating capacity, a low projection and a high projection. The low projection is a down to earth, business-as-usual projection. The high projection takes into account government and corporate announcements about longer-term plans for nuclear investments as well as potential new national policies, e.g., to combat climate change. The results for the 2008 projections are presented. In the low projection, the projected nuclear power capacity in 2030 is 473 GW(e), some 27% higher than today's 372 GW(e). In the high projection, nuclear capacity in 2030 is 748 GW(e), double today's capacity. But while projections for nuclear power's future rose, its share of the world's electricity generation today dropped from 15% in 2006 to 14% in 2007. The main reason is that while total global electricity generation rose 4.8% from 2007 to 2008, nuclear electricity actually dropped slightly. The overall message from the IAEA's 2008 edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period to 2030 is that global electricity use will grow significantly, that nuclear power will have to expand more rapidly than it has done rccently in order to maintain its share, and that nuclear power can meet the challenge.