Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts

Abstract Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, surprisingly little has been published on the actual monthly prediction skill of existing global circulation models. Since 2004, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has operationally run a dynamical monthly forecasting system (MOFC). It is the aim of this study to provide a systematic and fully probabilistic evaluation of MOFC prediction skill for weekly averaged forecasts of surface temperature in dependence of lead time, region, and season. This requires the careful setup of an appropriate verification context, given that the verification period is short and ensemble sizes small. This study considers the annual cycle of operational temperature forecasts issued in 2006, as well as the corresponding 12 yr of reforecasts (hindcasts). Th...

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