A multimedia, multiple pathway risk assessment of atrazine: the impact of age differentiated exposure including joint uncertainty and variability

Abstract This paper addresses the need to evaluate the differences in exposure to pesticides between children and adults. We present a framework for evaluating these differences in exposure to pesticides through multiple exposure pathways. The concentrations in all environmental media were determined as distributions in a companion paper. All parameter values utilized in the calculation of exposure and risk are considered to be distributions, resulting in distributions for output exposure and risk. A sensitivity analysis was completed to determine the relative importance of the parameters with respect to the outcome. A joint uncertainty and variability analysis was also completed to evaluate the relative contribution between uncertain and variable parameters. Exposure to atrazine by a mid-western farming family is presented as a case study. The predicted exposure for a child based on a 14-year exposure period was 1.6 times that calculated using lifetime averaged exposure parameters. This indicates the importance of considering children as a population sub-group when calculating the exposure and risk to pesticides.

[1]  I. R. James,et al.  An Application of Bayes Methodology to the Analysis of Diary Records from a Water Use Study , 1987 .

[2]  D E Burmaster,et al.  Lognormal Distributions for Body Weight as a Function of Age for Males and Females in the United States, 1976–1980 , 1997, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[3]  T E McKone,et al.  Comparison of multi-media transport and transformation models: regional fugacity model vs. CalTOX. , 1995, Chemosphere.

[4]  B L Finley,et al.  Development of a standard soil-to-skin adherence probability density function for use in Monte Carlo analyses of dermal exposure. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[5]  William E. Kastenberg,et al.  A multimedia, multiple pathway exposure assessment of atrazine: fate, transport and uncertainty analysis , 1999 .

[6]  K M Thompson,et al.  Monte Carlo techniques for quantitative uncertainty analysis in public health risk assessments. , 1992, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[7]  W. Huber,et al.  Ecotoxicological relevance of atrazine in aquatic systems , 1993 .

[8]  J. Daisey,et al.  Transport of subsurface contaminants into buildings , 1992 .

[9]  D W Layton,et al.  Metabolically consistent breathing rates for use in dose assessments. , 1993, Health physics.

[10]  Thomas E. McKone,et al.  Alternative modeling approaches for contaminant fate in soils: uncertainty, variability, and reliability , 1996 .

[11]  Philip H. Howard,et al.  Handbook of environmental fate and exposure data for organic chemicals. Volume II: Solvents , 1989 .

[12]  C. Nelson,et al.  An estimation of daily food usage factors for assessing radionuclide intakes in the U.S. population. , 1986, Health physics.

[13]  R. Spear,et al.  Integrating uncertainty and interindividual variability in environmental risk assessment. , 1987, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  T E McKone,et al.  Uncertainties in health-risk assessment: an integrated case study based on tetrachloroethylene in California groundwater. , 1992, Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology : RTP.

[15]  Children Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children , 1993 .

[16]  T. McKone,et al.  PREDICTING THE UNCERTAINTIES IN RISK ASSESSMENT , 1991 .

[17]  Stu Borman Fractals offer mathematical tool for study of complex chemical systems , 1991 .

[18]  Douglas Hartley,et al.  The Agrochemicals Handbook , 1991 .

[19]  M Dreicer,et al.  Rainsplash as a mechanism for soil contamination of plant surfaces. , 1984, Health physics.

[20]  D. C. Howell Statistical Methods for Psychology , 1987 .

[21]  B. N. Ames,et al.  Cancer prevention strategies greatly exaggerate risks , 1991 .

[22]  K. Verschueren Handbook of environmental data on organic chemicals , 1977 .

[23]  T. McKone Uncertainty and variability in human exposures to soil contaminants through home-grown food: a Monte Carlo assessment. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[24]  Max Henrion,et al.  Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis , 1990 .

[25]  P. Holden Pesticides and Groundwater Quality: Issues and Problems in Four States , 1986 .

[26]  E J Calabrese,et al.  Preliminary adult soil ingestion estimates: results of a pilot study. , 1990, Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology : RTP.

[27]  C. E. Cowan,et al.  The Multi-Media Fate Model: A Vital Tool for Predicting the Fate of Chemicals, , 1995 .

[28]  James Krieger Proposals sought for generic technologies , 1991 .

[29]  Robert L. Sielken,et al.  ES Series: Cancer Risk Assessment. 3. Cancer dose-response extrapolations , 1987 .

[30]  K. Cantor,et al.  Total water and tapwater intake in the United States: population-based estimates of quantities and sources , 1989 .

[31]  Natalie W. Harrington,et al.  Recommended distributions for exposure factors frequently used in health risk assessment. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[32]  E J Calabrese,et al.  Daily estimates of soil ingestion in children. , 1995, Environmental health perspectives.

[33]  D. Belluck,et al.  Groundwater Contamination by Atrazine and Its Metabolites: Risk Assessment, Policy, and Legal Implications , 1991 .

[34]  T. E. McKone,et al.  CalTOX, a multimedia total exposure model for hazardous-waste sites; Part 1, Executive summary , 1993 .

[35]  Tracy L. Thatcher,et al.  Deposition, resuspension, and penetration of particles within a residence , 1995 .

[36]  H Pastides,et al.  How much soil do young children ingest: an epidemiologic study. , 1989, Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology : RTP.

[37]  Thomas E. McKone,et al.  Human exposures to chemicals through food chains: an uncertainty analysis , 1989 .