Commercial Vehicles in Delhi: Diesel Demand and Sulphur Emission

The aim of this paper is to estimate the future growth of commercial vehicles (passenger vehicles and goods vehicles) and to project the subsequent increase in diesel demand and the level of sulphur dioxide emissions in Delhi. Using an S-curve growth model on the data set of auto rickshaws, taxis, buses, and goods vehicles from 1965- 66 to 2005-06, a long-term trend in the growth of commercial vehicles is projected to the year 2020-21. By 2020-21, the number of commercial vehicles is expected to increase to 0.51 million, with an increase in the share of goods vehicles and a simultaneous decrease in the share of passenger vehicles. The growth of commercial vehicles will boost the demand for diesel in 2020-21 by 68 percent, thus resulting in a threefold increase in sulphur dioxide emissions. The conversion of goods vehicle engines from diesel to CNG (compressed natural gas) will reduce diesel demand and sulphur dioxide levels significantly. A reduction of sulphur content in diesel can further reduce sulphur dioxide emissions.