Market Penetration Model for Autonomous Vehicles Based on Previous Technology Adoption Experiences

1 This paper presents the effort in developing a market penetration model for autonomous vehicle 2 technology adoption, based on similar technologies and previous trends in the United States. 3 Generalized Bass diffusion models are developed, based on data from previous technologies, 4 including sales and price data on conventional automobiles and hybrid electric vehicles, and the 5 usage of internet and cellphones. Based on the adoption patterns of previous technologies, two 6 values representing the innovation factor (risk taking capacity) and the imitation factor (culture 7 and lifestyle preferences) are selected for AV market penetration. In addition, external variables 8 such as the price of the AVs relative to conventional vehicles, and economic wealth are 9 incorporated into the model. The market size for AV adoption is determined based on the usage of 10 internet, and household is considered as the unit. Given the uncertainties in market size and price 11 of AVs, sensitivity analysis are also conducted to understand the possible impacts of these factors 12 on user adoption. In general larger market size leads to higher adoption rate, while the initial cost 13 of AVs relative to conventional vehicles does not seem to influence the diffusion process much. 14 This paper contributes to the literature by adding a quantitative analysis of AV market penetration 15 based on past technology adoption experiences. The study results provide valuable insights in 16 terms of the possible market diffusion patterns and the impacts of different factors on user 17 adoption. 18 3 Lavasani, Jin and Du

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