Improving road safety in Norway and Sweden : analysing the efficiency of policy priorities

This paper reports the results of two recent studies in Norway and Sweden to assess the potential for improving road safety. Three questions were investigated: the maximum number of people killed or injured in road traffic that can be prevented by applying all safety measures; the most cost-effective road safety measures; and the effects of these measures on other policy objectives. A broad survey of potentially effective measures was conducted, comprising 132 measures for Norway and 139 for Sweden. For each measure, alternative levels of potential use were defined ranging from "not used" to "used to maximum extent". For each level, effects of safety were estimated in terms of the prevented number of casualties. Estimations were mathematically calculated and tabulated. Measures were combined to form four road safety strategies, ranging from no new measures to maximum implementation, including the Swedish Vision Zero strategy which is described in detail. The number of fatalities for the year 2012 was forecast without and with the strategies. For the basic strategy of continuing as at present, only a marginal reduction of fatalities was registered. All the other strategies led to significant reductions. An interim cost-benefit strategy provides benefits without increased public expenditure. Practical implications of road safety measures are discussed, and some sources of uncertainty about the benefits are defined.