Meta-analysis of expert elicitations of future technology outcomes for nuclear power

Meta-analysis of expert elicitations of future technology outcomes for nuclear power Elena Verdolini Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milano, (+39) 02 520 36934 elena.verdolini@feem.it Laura Diaz Anadon Harvard University, (+1) 617 384 7325 Laura_Diaz_Anadon@harvard.edu Gregory Nemet University of Wisconsin-Madison, (+1) 608 265 3469 gnemet@lafollette.wisc.edu Overview Developing energy policies that are robust to a broad set of possible future conditions requires explicit characterization of the anticipated performance of individual energy technologies. While representing future technological change introduces considerable uncertainty into decision-making, we know from past data that energy technologies have been dynamic, and that these changes have had substantial affects on the entire energy system, the economy, the environment, and society. And even though future change is uncertain, we are not completely ignorant; dispersed researchers have produced data and developed tools that, in combination, provide the basis for probabilistic estimates of future improvements in technology. In this paper we make use of expert elicitations of the future performance of nuclear fission technology conditional on public R&D investment. Multiple groups, in Europe and in the U.S., have collected responses from experts. We apply meta-analysis techniques to generate elicitation results that are consistent across the studies and can be combined. The variation in approaches to elicitation across studies allows us to understand what characteristics of elicitation design most affect elicited technology outcomes.