CONVERTIBLE BOND VALUATION: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

This research applies the options pricing model to the valuation of convertible bonds. A numeric algorithm is used to obtain theoretical values for a sample of 103 convertible bond issues. When market prices are compared with model valuations, the means are not significantly different, and 90 percent of model predictions are within 10 percent of market values. As a further test, the sample is divided on the basis of whether the model prices are (1) greater or (2) less than market prices. Returns are compared over a subsequent three-year holding period. The results indicate that without risk adjustment, the returns for the subsample identified by the model as “undervalued” (model prices exceed market prices) are significantly greater than returns for the subsample identified by the model as “overvalued” (market prices exceed model prices).

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