A Model for Estimating the Acute Health Impacts Resulting from Consumption of Contaminated Drinking Water

SIR models predict the spread of disease over time through susceptible, in- fected, and recovered populations, and are often used to design public health intervention strategies. A modified SIR model is linked to flow and transport models for distribution systems in order to predict the health risks associated with contamination events. The pro- posed framework provides information about the spatial and temporal distribution of health risks in distribution systems, and is useful for understanding the vulnerability of distribution systems to contamination, but also for designing strategies to reduce risks.