Forecasting intrahourly variability of wind generation

Intrahourly fluctuations in wind power generation cause various technical and economic challenges for wind farm integration. With increasing levels of wind energy uptake, managing these fluctuations is likely to require further attention. Intrahourly fluctuations in wind power are caused by fluctuations in wind speed that can be linked with a range of atmospheric phenomena. Explicitly forecasting intrahourly wind variability requires both statistical and physical modelling. Predictors of wind and power variability include large-scale weather patterns, the wind speed timeseries itself, and information about approaching weather regimes. Numerical weather prediction models have been shown to be a useful tool for day-ahead forecasts of intrahourly variability. A promising application of intrahourly variability forecasts is the management of variable wind farm output using a flexible dispatch margin.

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