Sensor data on cow activity, rumination, and ear temperature improve prediction of the start of calving in dairy cows

Adding sensor data to a predictive model improves prediction of the calving day.Sensor detected change in activity had most value to predict the start of calving.The predictive model predicts 43.5% of the calvings with 1% false positive alerts.Notable change in sensor data was observed within 10h before calving started.The predictive model generated most alerts in the last 12h prior to calving. Management during calving is important for the health and survival of dairy cows and their calves. Although the expected calving date is known, this information is imprecise and farmers still have to check a cow regularly to identify when it starts calving. A sensor system that predicts the moment of calving could help farmers efficiently check cows for calving. Observation of a cow prior to calving is important because dystocia can occur, which requires timely intervention to mitigate adverse effects on both cow and calf. In this study, 400 cows on a Dutch dairy farm were equipped with sensors. The sensor was a single device in an ear tag, which synthesised cumulative activity, rumination activity, feeding activity, and temperature on an hourly basis. Data were collected during a one-year period. During this period, the starting moment of 417 calvings was recorded using camera images of the calving pen taken every 5min. In total, 114 calving moments could be linked with sensor data. The moment at which calving started was defined as the first camera snapshot with visible evidence that the cow was having contractions or had started labor. Two logit models were developed: a model with the expected calving date as independent variable and a model with additional independent variables based on sensor data. The areas under the curves of the Receiver Operating Characteristic were 0.885 and 0.929 for these models, respectively. The model with expected calving date only had a sensitivity of 9.1%, whereas the model with additional sensor data has a sensitivity of 36.4%, both with a fixed false positive rate of 1%. Results indicate that the inclusion of sensor data improves the prediction of the start of calving; therefore the sensor data has value for the prediction of the moment of calving. The model with the expected calving date and sensor data had a sensitivity of 21.2% at a one-hour time window and 42.4% at a three-hour time window, both with a false positive rate of 1%. This indicates that prediction of the specific hour in which calving started was not possible with a high accuracy. The inclusion of sensor data improves the accuracy of a prediction of the start of calving, compared to a prediction based only on the expected calving date. Farmers can use the alerts of the predictive model as an indication that cows should be supervised more closely in the next hours.