Identification of key sectors and key provinces at the view of CO2 reduction and economic growth in China: Linkage analyses based on the MRIO model

Abstract In China, the largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter in the world, reducing national CO2 emissions while maintaining economic growth has become an important issue. Industrial linkage analyses can be applied to identify key sectors and provinces where policies need to be developed for this purpose. To identify the specific key sectors in these provinces, we designed a method based on inter-sector linkage analyses with a multi-regional input–output model, using 27 industries in 30 provinces as research objects. We analyzed backward and forward linkages, combined inter-sector production and CO2 emissions linkages, and used both marginal and absolute measures. In the backward linkages, the key emissions reduction sectors included production and supply of electricity and heat in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, and transportation and storage in Liaoning and other provinces. In the forward linkages, the key emissions reduction sectors included nonmetal mineral products in Hebei, and the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals in Inner Mongolia and other provinces. The key provinces from both the demand and supply sides were Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. Policy implications for decision makers were derived from the demand and supply side perspectives, to guide sector-level and province-level CO2 emissions mitigation strategies, respectively.