Bayesian Modeling of Health State Preferences

In this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for modeling uncertainty about a population’s health state preferences. Such a framework is motivated by the need to analyze preference-based measurement data that arise from evaluation of health states by a sample of individuals. The Bayesian framework leads to population utility estimation and health policy evaluation by introducing a probabilistic interpretation of the multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) models used in health economics. In doing so, our approach combines ideas from the MAUT approach of Keeney and Raiffa (“Decisions with Multiple Objectives-Preferences and Value Tradeoffs”, Wiley, New York, 1976) and Bayesian view point to provide an alternate method of modeling preferences.

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