Simulating the effect of light rail on urban growth in Phoenix: An application of the UrbanSim modeling environment

This study uses a comprehensive urban simulation model called UrbanSim to evaluate the viability and suitability of a light rail system for the Phoenix metropolitan area. The impact of the proposed light rail system is examined by observing the changes in the number and types of households adjacent to the proposed transit line in 2015. A scenario that includes light rail is compared with a scenario in which light rail transit is not introduced. Although the results confirm the expectation that most areas adjacent to light-rail stations would increase in household density, there was a surprising decline in household density in other areas, especially in the corridor next to Arizona State University. This area already has an extremely high population density, with housing that is mostly rental and aimed at students and other low- to mid-market clients. It is suggested that the light rail transit would provide an amenity that would push this area towards gentrification and push out the current population.

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