Dynamic response of marshes to perturbations in suspended sediment concentrations and rates of relative sea level rise

[1] We have developed an analytical model of salt marsh evolution that captures the dynamic response of marshes to perturbations in suspended sediment concentrations, plant productivity, and the rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR). Sediment-rich and highly productive marshes will approach a new equilibrium state in response to a step change in the rate of RSLR faster than sediment-poor or less productive marshes. Microtidal marshes will respond more quickly to a step change in the rate of RSLR than mesotidal or macrotidal marshes. Marshes are more resilient to a decrease rather than to an increase in the rate of RSLR, and they are more resilient to a decrease rather than to an increase in sediment availability. Moreover, macrotidal marshes are more resilient to changes in the rate of RSLR than their microtidal counterparts. Finally, we find that a marsh's ability to record sea level fluctuations in its stratigraphy is fundamentally related to a timescale we call TFT, or filling timescale, which is equal to the tidal amplitude divided by the maximum possible accretion rate on the marsh (a function of plant productivity, sediment properties, and availability). Marshes with a short-filling timescale (i.e., marshes with rapid sedimentation or small tidal amplitudes) are best suited to recording high-frequency fluctuations in RSLR, but our model suggests it is unlikely that marshes will be able to record fluctuations occurring over timescales that are shorter than decadal.

[1]  P. V. Sundareshwar,et al.  RESPONSES OF COASTAL WETLANDS TO RISING SEA LEVEL , 2002 .

[2]  L. Larsen,et al.  How Vegetation and Sediment Transport Feedbacks Drive Landscape Change in the Everglades and Wetlands Worldwide , 2010, The American Naturalist.

[3]  R. Krone.  A Method for Simulating Historic Marsh Elevations , 1987 .

[4]  Patrick Meire,et al.  Modelling long-term tidal marsh growth under changing tidal conditions and suspended sediment concentrations, Scheldt estuary, Belgium , 2003 .

[5]  J. Day,et al.  Soil Accretionary Dynamics, Sea-Level Rise and the Survival of Wetlands in Venice Lagoon: A Field and Modelling Approach , 1999 .

[6]  J. M. Smith,et al.  Hurricane-induced failure of low salinity wetlands , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  Harry H. Roberts,et al.  Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise , 2009 .

[8]  J. Irish,et al.  Laboratory and numerical studies of wave damping by emergent and near-emergent wetland vegetation , 2009 .

[9]  Andrea D'Alpaos,et al.  How does vegetation affect sedimentation on tidal marshes? Investigating particle capture and hydrodynamic controls on biologically mediated sedimentation , 2010 .

[10]  A. D’Alpaos.  The mutual influence of biotic and abiotic components on the long-term ecomorphodynamic evolution of salt-marsh ecosystems , 2011 .

[11]  D. Cahoon,et al.  Estimating the potential for submergence for two wetlands in the Mississippi River Delta , 2002 .

[12]  Betsy Haskin,et al.  A 5‐yr Record of Aerial Primary Production and Stand Characteristics of Spartina Alterniflora , 1990 .

[13]  Andrea Rinaldo,et al.  Landscape evolution in tidal embayments: Modeling the interplay of erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation dynamics , 2006 .

[14]  A. Brad Murray,et al.  Tidal marshes as disequilibrium landscapes? Lags between morphology and Holocene sea level change , 2008 .

[15]  Glenn R. Guntenspergen,et al.  Influence of tidal range on the stability of coastal marshland , 2010 .

[16]  M. Kirwan,et al.  A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[17]  S. Mudd.  The life and death of salt marshes in response to anthropogenic disturbance of sediment supply , 2011 .

[18]  Luca Carniello,et al.  Critical bifurcation of shallow microtidal landforms in tidal flats and salt marshes. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[19]  S. Temmerman,et al.  Vegetation causes channel erosion in a tidal landscape , 2007 .

[20]  Daisuke Mizuno,et al.  A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise , 2007 .

[21]  J. French,et al.  Numerical simulation of vertical marsh growth and adjustment to accelerated sea‐level rise, North Norfolk, U.K. , 1993 .

[22]  S. Temmerman,et al.  Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level , 2010 .

[23]  S. L. Yang,et al.  Trapping Effect of Tidal Marsh Vegetation on Suspended Sediment, Yangtze Delta , 2009 .

[24]  Andrea Rinaldo,et al.  Tidal landforms, patterns of halophytic vegetation and the fate of the lagoon of Venice , 2004 .

[25]  S. Jevrejeva,et al.  Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago? , 2008 .

[26]  Luca Carniello,et al.  A combined wind wave–tidal model for the Venice lagoon, Italy , 2004 .

[27]  Donald R. Cahoon,et al.  Pattern and process of land loss in the Mississippi Delta: A Spatial and temporal analysis of wetland habitat change , 2000 .

[28]  Sergio Fagherazzi,et al.  Modeling the influence of hydroperiod and vegetation on the cross-sectional formation of tidal channels , 2006 .

[29]  R. Delaune,et al.  Marsh vertical accretion via vegetative growth , 2006 .

[30]  N. White,et al.  A 20 th century acceleration in global sea-level rise , 2005 .

[31]  A. Brad Murray,et al.  Rapid wetland expansion during European settlement and its implication for marsh survival under modern sediment delivery rates , 2011 .

[32]  Sonia Silvestri,et al.  Tidal regime, salinity and salt marsh plant zonation , 2005 .

[33]  J. Allen.  Salt-marsh growth and fluctuating sea level: implications of a simulation model for Flandrian coastal stratigraphy and peat-based sea-level curves , 1995 .

[34]  N. White,et al.  A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise , 2006 .

[35]  D. Cahoon,et al.  Coastal Wetlands , 2019, Beaches and Coasts.

[36]  W. H. Patrick,et al.  The relationship of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) to tidal datums: A review , 1988 .

[37]  L. Larsen,et al.  A complex-systems approach to predicting effects of sea level rise and nitrogen loading on nitrogen cycling in coastal wetland ecosystems , 2010 .

[38]  P. Wiberg,et al.  Flow and Sediment Transport on a Tidal Salt Marsh Surface , 2000 .

[39]  Simon M. Mudd,et al.  Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation, sea-level rise, and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation , 2009 .

[40]  A. Kolker,et al.  High-resolution records of the response of coastal wetland systems to long-term and short-term sea-level variability , 2009 .

[41]  Iris Möller,et al.  Wave Transformation Over Salt Marshes: A Field and Numerical Modelling Study from North Norfolk, England , 1999 .

[42]  J. Allen.  Salt-marsh growth and stratification: A numerical model with special reference to the Severn Estuary, southwest Britain☆ , 1990 .

[43]  A. Defina,et al.  Influence of storm surges and sea level on shallow tidal basin erosive processes , 2010 .

[44]  David Jon Furbish,et al.  Flow, Sedimentation, and Biomass Production on a Vegetated Salt Marsh in South Carolina: Toward a Predictive Model of Marsh Morphologic and Ecologic Evolution , 2004 .

[45]  S. Neubauer.  Contributions of mineral and organic components to tidal freshwater marsh accretion , 2008 .

[46]  Robert Costanza,et al.  The value of ecosystem services , 1998 .

[47]  D. Cahoon,et al.  Global carbon sequestration in tidal, saline wetland soils , 2003 .

[48]  Andrea Rinaldo,et al.  Biologically‐controlled multiple equilibria of tidal landforms and the fate of the Venice lagoon , 2007 .

[49]  Andrea Rinaldo,et al.  The importance of being coupled: Stable states and catastrophic shifts in tidal biomorphodynamics , 2009 .

[50]  Paolo Ciavola,et al.  Flow Resistance and Associated Sedimentary Processes in a Spartina maritima Salt-Marsh , 2004 .