Modelling Uncertainty in Expert Systems

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse a wide variety of alternative approaches to the modelling of uncertainty, and to discuss their relevance to the handling of uncertain inference in Expert Systems. Some of the approaches that I shall examine have been developed specifically for use in expert systems, while others have arisen from more theoretical work on the notions of support and belief. Particular emphasis will be placed on an analysis and comparison of the underlying measures of uncertainty; this analysis will lead to a discussion of the role in expert systems, of the concepts of support, refutation, belief and possibility. The criticism of current approaches to the modelling of uncertainty will be used as a basis for formulating some requirements for the processing of evidence in an expert system.

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