Hazard vulnerability assessment: How well does nature follow our rules?

Vulnerability is a central construct in environmental risk assessment, and a variety of methods have been introduced to facilitate its expression as a planning and decision-making device. The contrasting interpretations generated by these methods of modelling produce dramatic differences in spatial representation that contribute to uncertainty, and no clear connection has been established between vulnerability and the actual consequences resulting from a nature hazard event. In this study, geographic information system-based vulnerability modelling is evaluated, and the association between modelled-produced expressions and the aftermath impact of a natural hazard event on the human landscape is examined. Employing hurricane aftermath data from the 2005 Hurricane Katrina event in New Orleans, Louisiana, this study presents a comparative analysis that can assist in the validation of vulnerability assessment methods and identify limitations in current modelling strategies. The results of this analysis demonstrate that the methods employed to model vulnerability do not necessarily capture the actual consequence of a natural hazard event and suggest that place-specific factors should play a more significant role when assessing hazard vulnerability.

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