Introduction to Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective

Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

[1]  D. Stone,et al.  Anthropogenic Contribution to the 2017 Earliest Summer Onset in South Korea , 2019, Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS).

[2]  J. A. Navarro,et al.  December 2016: Linking the Lowest Arctic Sea-Ice Extent on Record with the Lowest European Precipitation Event on Record , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[3]  R. Owen.  Actuaries are Paying Attention to Climate Data , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[4]  D. Wallom,et al.  Anthropogenic Warming has Substantially Increased the Likelihood of July 2017–Like Heat Waves over Central Eastern China , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[5]  R. Wu,et al.  Attribution of the Persistent Spring–Summer Hot and Dry Extremes over Northeast China in 2017 , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[6]  B. Dong,et al.  Contribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change to April–May 2017 Heavy Precipitation over the Uruguay River Basin , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[7]  M. Allen,et al.  Risks of Pre-Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Events of Bangladesh: Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Playing a Role? , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[8]  Diego H. Pedreros,et al.  Examining the Potential Contributions of Extreme “Western V” Sea Surface Temperatures to the 2017 March–June East African Drought , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[9]  A. Dowdy,et al.  On Determining the Impact of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on the Record Fire Weather in Eastern Australia in February 2017 , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[10]  S. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick,et al.  The Role of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change in the 2017/18 Tasman Sea Marine Heatwave , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[11]  T. Zhou,et al.  Relative contributions of external SST forcing and internal atmospheric variability to July–August heat waves over the Yangtze River valley , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[12]  C. Crawford,et al.  Analysis of farm management strategies following herpesvirus (OsHV-1) disease outbreaks in Pacific oysters in Tasmania, Australia , 2018, Aquaculture.

[13]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Assessing the Dynamic Versus Thermodynamic Origin of Climate Model Biases , 2018, Geophysical research letters.

[14]  Yeon‐Hee Kim,et al.  Anthropogenic and Natural Contributions to the Lengthening of the Summer Season in the Northern Hemisphere , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[15]  P. Kushner,et al.  On the Relative Robustness of the Climate Response to High‐Latitude and Low‐Latitude Warming , 2018, Geophysical Research Letters.

[16]  D. Wallom,et al.  Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcings and El Niño on Chinese Extreme Temperatures , 2018, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[17]  P. Stott,et al.  Upgrade of the HadGEM3-A based attribution system to high resolution and a new validation framework for probabilistic event attribution , 2018, Weather and Climate Extremes.

[18]  D. Stone,et al.  Multi-model event attribution of the summer 2013 heat wave in Korea , 2018, Weather and Climate Extremes.

[19]  Jianqi Sun,et al.  Can Barents Sea Ice Decline in Spring Enhance Summer Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China? , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[20]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Central-Eastern China Persistent Heat Waves: Evaluation of the AMIP Models , 2018 .

[21]  F. Otto,et al.  Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought , 2018 .

[22]  D. Stone,et al.  On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[23]  M. Voßbeck,et al.  Warm Winter, Wet Spring, and an Extreme Response in Ecosystem Functioning on the Iberian Peninsula , 2018 .

[24]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree , 2018 .

[25]  D. Labat,et al.  Rainfall along the coast of Peru during strong El Niño events , 2018 .

[26]  P. Stott,et al.  Different Ways of Framing Event Attribution Questions: The Example of Warm and Wet Winters in the United Kingdom Similar to 2015/16 , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[27]  D Masters,et al.  Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era , 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  R. Garreaud.  A plausible atmospheric trigger for the 2017 coastal El Niño , 2018 .

[29]  C. Mundy,et al.  Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: trends, interannual variability, and predictability , 2018 .

[30]  S. Tett,et al.  Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China? , 2018 .

[31]  S. Behera,et al.  Quasi-asymmetric response of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall to opposite phases of the IOD , 2018, Scientific Reports.

[32]  S. Sorooshian,et al.  A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons , 2018 .

[33]  Jianqi Sun,et al.  Interdecadal variability of the large-scale extreme hot event frequency over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin and its related atmospheric patterns , 2018 .

[34]  Chunlüe Zhou,et al.  On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China , 2017, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[35]  Catherine A. Smith,et al.  The Extreme 2015/16 El Niño, in the Context of Historical Climate Variability and Change , 2017 .

[36]  David W. Hancock,et al.  On the "Cal-Mode" Correction to TOPEX Satellite Altimetry and Its Effect on the Global Mean Sea Level Time Series , 2017 .

[37]  A. Dowdy.  Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia , 2017 .

[38]  F. Otto.  Attribution of Weather and Climate Events , 2017 .

[39]  Russell W. Bradley,et al.  Environmental conditions and prey-switching by a seabird predator impact juvenile salmon survival , 2017 .

[40]  Quazi K. Hassan,et al.  Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Impact of Flash Flooding on the Rice Production: A Case Study over Northeastern Bangladesh , 2017, Sensors.

[41]  Arun Kumar,et al.  What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events? , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[42]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons , 2017 .

[43]  S. Rahmstorf,et al.  Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic fingerprint , 2017 .

[44]  A. Barnston,et al.  Observing and Predicting the 2015/16 El Niño , 2017 .

[45]  M. Fromm,et al.  Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia , 2017 .

[46]  N. Bindoff,et al.  The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave , 2017, Nature Communications.

[47]  J. Bamber,et al.  The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era , 2017, Environmental Research Letters.

[48]  M. Heimann,et al.  Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems , 2017 .

[49]  Matt A. King,et al.  The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014 , 2017 .

[50]  D. Stone,et al.  Quantifying uncertainty in the attribution of human influence on severe weather , 2017 .

[51]  D. Karoly,et al.  Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming , 2017 .

[52]  R. Rykaczewski,et al.  Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling , 2017 .

[53]  C. Conrad,et al.  Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise , 2017, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[54]  D. Stone,et al.  Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions , 2017 .

[55]  Chris Funk,et al.  Climatology and Interannual Variability of Boreal Spring Wet Season Precipitation in the Eastern Horn of Africa and Implications for Its Recent Decline , 2017 .

[56]  Jinming Feng,et al.  Urban warming in the 2013 summer heat wave in eastern China , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[57]  H. Dieng,et al.  New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach , 2017 .

[58]  B. Santer,et al.  Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States , 2017, Nature Communications.

[59]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record , 2017 .

[60]  Jaclyn N. Brown,et al.  Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[61]  Elizabeth A. Daly,et al.  Anomalous ocean conditions in 2015: impacts on spring Chinook salmon and their prey field , 2017 .

[62]  Jiankai Wang,et al.  Comparing the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of atmospheric and surface urban heat islands based on the Beijing urban meteorological network , 2017 .

[63]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Summer heat waves over Eastern China: dynamical processes and trend attribution , 2017 .

[64]  Michael F. Wehner,et al.  Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design , 2017 .

[65]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Reconciling Theories for Human and Natural Attribution of Recent East Africa Drying , 2017 .

[66]  Renping Lin,et al.  Simulation of the western North Pacific subtropical high in El Niño decaying summers by CMIP5 AGCMs , 2017 .

[67]  Xing Yuan,et al.  Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought? , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[68]  C. Gentemann,et al.  Satellite sea surface temperatures along the West Coast of the United States during the 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heat wave , 2017 .

[69]  N. Gruber,et al.  Local atmospheric forcing driving an unexpected California Current System response during the 2015–2016 El Niño , 2017 .

[70]  Carl J. Schreck,et al.  Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective , 2016 .

[71]  S. Wang,et al.  The 2014/15 Snowpack Drought in Washington State and its Climate Forcing , 2016 .

[72]  P. Stott,et al.  Human Contribution to the Record Sunshine of Winter 2014/15 in the United Kingdom , 2016 .

[73]  D. Karoly,et al.  Southern Australia’s Warmest October on Record: The Role of ENSO and Climate Change , 2016 .

[74]  U. Bhatt,et al.  An Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the Alaska Fire Season of 2015 , 2016 .

[75]  Yan Yin,et al.  Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia , 2016 .

[76]  J. Arblaster,et al.  What Caused the Record-Breaking Heat Across Australia in October 2015? , 2016 .

[77]  Zhongwei Yan,et al.  Climatic warming in China according to a homogenized data set from 2419 stations , 2016 .

[78]  R. Vautard,et al.  Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events , 2016 .

[79]  Emanuele Di Lorenzo,et al.  Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave , 2016 .

[80]  U. Schneider,et al.  The new portfolio of global precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre suitable to assess and quantify the global water cycle and resources , 2016 .

[81]  F. Landerer,et al.  Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise? , 2016 .

[82]  Richard G. Jones,et al.  weather@home 2: validation of an improved global–regional climate modelling system , 2016 .

[83]  A. P. Williams,et al.  Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[84]  D. Wallom,et al.  The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand , 2016 .

[85]  R. Lu,et al.  Evolution of the Circulation Anomalies and the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillations Associated with Extreme Heat Events in Southern China , 2016 .

[86]  Kirien Whan,et al.  Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change , 2016 .

[87]  J. Fasullo,et al.  Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent? , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[88]  R. Vautard,et al.  Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change , 2016 .

[89]  Daniel L. Rudnick,et al.  Impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño on the California Current System: Early assessment and comparison to past events , 2016 .

[90]  Xavier Fettweis,et al.  Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 , 2016 .

[91]  R. Allen,et al.  Future aerosol reductions and widening of the northern tropical belt , 2016 .

[92]  Richard G. Jones,et al.  Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts , 2016 .

[93]  Irina Koester,et al.  Biological Impacts of the 2013–2015 Warm-Water Anomaly in the Northeast Pacific: Winners, Losers, and the Future , 2016 .

[94]  R. Vautard,et al.  Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because occurrences matter , 2016 .

[95]  Yayoi Harada,et al.  The JRA-55 Reanalysis: Representation of Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Variability , 2016 .

[96]  Dongxiao Wang,et al.  Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[97]  G. Ren,et al.  Urbanization effects on climatic changes in 24 particular timings of the seasonal cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River , 2016, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[98]  T. M. Chin,et al.  A long-term record of blended satellite and in situ sea-surface temperature for climate monitoring, modeling and environmental studies , 2016 .

[99]  Nathaniel A. Brunsell,et al.  Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[100]  Friederike E. L. Otto,et al.  Extreme events: The art of attribution , 2016 .

[101]  C. Deser,et al.  Does ocean coupling matter for the northern extratropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss? , 2016 .

[102]  D. Easterling,et al.  Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record , 2016 .

[103]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves , 2016 .

[104]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation? , 2016 .

[105]  U. Schneider,et al.  GPCC Full Data Daily Version 1.0: Daily Land-Surface Precipitation from Rain Gauges built on GTS based and Historic Data , 2016 .

[106]  Chunlüe Zhou,et al.  Biological and Environmental Controls on Evaporative Fractions at AmeriFlux Sites , 2016 .

[107]  Ying Sun,et al.  Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events , 2015, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change.

[108]  Daniel M. Mitchell,et al.  Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change , 2015 .

[109]  Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,et al.  Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics , 2015 .

[110]  S. Shukla,et al.  Assessing the Contributions of East African and West Pacific Warming to the 2014 Boreal Spring East African Drought , 2015 .

[111]  F. Otto,et al.  The 2014 Drought in the Horn of Africa: Attribution of Meteorological Drivers , 2015 .

[112]  P. Gibson,et al.  Increased Risk of the 2014 Australian May Heatwave Due to Anthropogenic Activity , 2015 .

[113]  C. Herbaut,et al.  Regional dependence in the timing of onset of rapid decline in Arctic sea ice concentration , 2015 .

[114]  P. Rasch,et al.  Extreme Fire Season in California: A Glimpse Into the Future? , 2015 .

[115]  T. Zhou,et al.  Enhanced or Weakened Western North Pacific Subtropical High under Global Warming? , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[116]  R. Gillies,et al.  Role of the strengthened El Niño teleconnection in the May 2015 floods over the southern Great Plains , 2015 .

[117]  P. Peterson,et al.  The Centennial Trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset , 2015, Scientific Data.

[118]  K.,et al.  The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability , 2015 .

[119]  T. Zhou,et al.  The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms , 2015 .

[120]  Jin Li,et al.  Analysis on the Extreme Heat Wave over China around Yangtze River Region in the Summer of 2013 and Its Main Contributing Factors , 2015 .

[121]  L. Botsford,et al.  Changing central Pacific El Niños reduce stability of North American salmon survival rates , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[122]  R. Wu,et al.  Synergistic contribution of precipitation anomalies over northwestern India and the South China Sea to high temperature over the Yangtze River Valley , 2015, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[123]  B. Colle,et al.  A Review of Historical and Future Changes of Extratropical Cyclones and Associated Impacts Along the US East Coast , 2015, Current Climate Change Reports.

[124]  Simon Wilson,et al.  weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution , 2015 .

[125]  Myles R. Allen,et al.  Cold Extremes in North America vs. Mild Weather in Europe: The Winter of 2013–14 in the Context of a Warming World , 2015 .

[126]  R. Seager,et al.  Climatology, Variability, and Trends in the U.S. Vapor Pressure Deficit, an Important Fire-Related Meteorological Quantity* , 2015 .

[127]  G. Ren,et al.  An Integrated Procedure to Determine a Reference Station Network for Evaluating and Adjusting Urban Bias in Surface Air Temperature Data , 2015 .

[128]  E. Fischer,et al.  Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes , 2015 .

[129]  Matt A. King,et al.  Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era , 2015 .

[130]  B. Hamlington,et al.  Considerations for estimating the 20th century trend in global mean sea level , 2015 .

[131]  A. Hoell,et al.  The Leading Mode of Observed and CMIP5 ENSO-Residual Sea Surface Temperatures and Associated Changes in Indo-Pacific Climate , 2015 .

[132]  Nicholas A. Bond,et al.  Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific , 2015 .

[133]  Markus Reichstein,et al.  Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts , 2015, Global change biology.

[134]  W. Cai,et al.  Human Contribution to the 2014 Record High Sea Surface Temperatures Over the Western Tropical And Northeast Pacific Ocean , 2015 .

[135]  A. Moore,et al.  ENSO and the California Current coastal upwelling response , 2015 .

[136]  Ed Hawkins,et al.  Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends , 2015 .

[137]  R. Kopp,et al.  Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise , 2015, Nature.

[138]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons , 2014 .

[139]  N. Mantua,et al.  Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature trends and variations, 1900-2012 , 2014 .

[140]  Qinyu Liu,et al.  Global Warming–Induced Changes in El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America , 2014 .

[141]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Understanding Recent Eastern Horn of Africa Rainfall Variability and Change , 2014 .

[142]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China , 2014 .

[143]  Martha B. Dunbar,et al.  Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world , 2014 .

[144]  Stephanie C. Herring,et al.  Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective , 2014 .

[145]  Bradfield Lyon,et al.  Seasonal Drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and Its Recent Increase during the March–May Long Rains , 2014 .

[146]  T. Karl,et al.  Trends and Variability in Severe Snowstorms East of the Rocky Mountains , 2014 .

[147]  R. Katz,et al.  Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate , 2014, Climatic Change.

[148]  Dara Entekhabi,et al.  Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather , 2014 .

[149]  P. O’Gorman.  Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change , 2014, Nature.

[150]  L. Zhen,et al.  Updated Homogenized Chinese Temperature Series with Physical Consistency , 2014 .

[151]  A. Barnston,et al.  Tropical pacific forcing of a 1998–1999 climate shift: observational analysis and climate model results for the boreal spring season , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[152]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts , 2014 .

[153]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season , 2014 .

[154]  Deliang Chen,et al.  Summer high temperature extremes in southeast China: Bonding with the El Niño-southern oscillation and east asian summer monsoon coupled system , 2014 .

[155]  S. Nicholson.  A detailed look at the recent drought situation in the Greater Horn of Africa , 2014 .

[156]  P. Stott,et al.  Change in the Odds of Warm Years and Seasons Due to Anthropogenic Influence on the Climate , 2014 .

[157]  P. Jones,et al.  Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset , 2014 .

[158]  Rebecca M. B. Harris,et al.  Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania , 2014, Climatic Change.

[159]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[160]  Jeffrey E. Jarrett,et al.  Multivariate statistical quality control , 2013 .

[161]  Mark A. Cane,et al.  The East African Long Rains in Observations and Models , 2013 .

[162]  A. Hoell,et al.  Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[163]  T. Knutson,et al.  Multimodel Assessment of Regional Surface Temperature Trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Twentieth-Century Simulations , 2013 .

[164]  Francis W. Zwiers,et al.  Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence , 2013 .

[165]  L. Haan,et al.  On the block maxima method in extreme value theory: PWM estimators , 2013, 1310.3222.

[166]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Inferred changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries , 2013 .

[167]  W. Collins,et al.  The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research , 2013 .

[168]  Kaicun Wang,et al.  Contribution of solar radiation to decadal temperature variability over land , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[169]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Climate extremes and the carbon cycle , 2013, Nature.

[170]  D. Karoly,et al.  Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013 , 2013 .

[171]  M. Kimoto,et al.  An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model , 2013 .

[172]  N. Gillett,et al.  Attribution of observed sea level pressure trends to greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone changes , 2013 .

[173]  Alberto Arribas,et al.  A New HadGEM3-A-Based System for Attribution of Weather- and Climate-Related Extreme Events , 2013 .

[174]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction , 2013, Nature Communications.

[175]  R. Wu,et al.  A Strengthened Influence of ENSO on August High Temperature Extremes over the Southern Yangtze River Valley since the Late 1980s , 2013 .

[176]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[177]  K. Emanuel,et al.  Reply to “Comments on ‘Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge’” , 2015 .

[178]  Christopher Lucas,et al.  Changes in Australian fire weather between 1973 and 2010 , 2013 .

[179]  P. Stott,et al.  Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to human‐induced climate change? , 2013 .

[180]  F. Calafat,et al.  Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise , 2012, Nature Communications.

[181]  M. Collins,et al.  Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to the future , 2012 .

[182]  A. Kitoh,et al.  APHRODITE: Constructing a Long-Term Daily Gridded Precipitation Dataset for Asia Based on a Dense Network of Rain Gauges , 2012 .

[183]  M. Newman,et al.  Reconciling disparate twentieth-century Indo-Pacific ocean temperature trends in the instrumental record , 2012 .

[184]  J. Fyfe,et al.  Observed and simulated changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind‐stress , 2012 .

[185]  S. Nicholson,et al.  A Two-Century Precipitation Dataset for the Continent of Africa , 2012 .

[186]  N. Hirota,et al.  A tripolar pattern as an internal mode of the East Asian summer monsoon , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[187]  Bin Wang,et al.  Recent weakening of northern East Asian summer monsoon: A possible response to global warming , 2012 .

[188]  D. Labat,et al.  Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific, Titicaca and Amazonas drainages , 2012 .

[189]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[190]  D. Easterling,et al.  Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment , 2012 .

[191]  P. Jones,et al.  Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010: LAND-SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS , 2012 .

[192]  K. Mo,et al.  Continental-scale water and energy flux analysis and validation for the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2): 1. Intercomparison and application of model products , 2012 .

[193]  Myles R. Allen,et al.  Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave , 2012 .

[194]  C. Donlon,et al.  The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system , 2012 .

[195]  Huang Ronghui,et al.  The Impact of Indian Ocean Variability on High Temperature Extremes across the Southern Yangtze River Valley in Late Summer , 2012 .

[196]  David G. DeWitt,et al.  A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains , 2012 .

[197]  O. Alves,et al.  Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system , 2011 .

[198]  K. Calvin,et al.  The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 , 2011 .

[199]  G. P. Kyle,et al.  Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways , 2011 .

[200]  Nick Rayner,et al.  Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties , 2011 .

[201]  M. Alexander,et al.  Natural variation in ENSO flavors , 2011 .

[202]  Nadine Gobron,et al.  Exploiting the MODIS albedos with the Two‐stream Inversion Package (JRC‐TIP): 2. Fractions of transmitted and absorbed fluxes in the vegetation and soil layers , 2011 .

[203]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[204]  K. Denman,et al.  Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases , 2011 .

[205]  Tao Zhang,et al.  Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? , 2011 .

[206]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes , 2011, Nature.

[207]  A. P. Williams,et al.  A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa , 2011 .

[208]  J. Hansen,et al.  GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE , 2010 .

[209]  H. Hasumi,et al.  Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity , 2010, Journal of Climate.

[210]  Zhongwei Yan,et al.  The role of changes in the annual cycle in earlier onset of climatic spring in northern China , 2010 .

[211]  Shamsuddin Shahid,et al.  Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh , 2010 .

[212]  Y. Kosaka,et al.  Mechanisms of Meridional Teleconnection Observed between a Summer Monsoon System and a Subtropical Anticyclone. Part I: The Pacific–Japan Pattern , 2010 .

[213]  A. Sterl,et al.  EC-Earth A Seamless earth-System Prediction Approach in Action , 2010 .

[214]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves , 2010 .

[215]  Graham Mills,et al.  Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index , 2010 .

[216]  David S. Lee,et al.  Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application , 2010 .

[217]  Nadine Gobron,et al.  Monitoring biosphere vegetation 1998–2009 , 2010 .

[218]  Zhongwei Yan,et al.  Changes in hot days and heat waves in China during 1961–2007 , 2010 .

[219]  R. Seager,et al.  Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10 , 2010 .

[220]  Tong Lee,et al.  Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central‐equatorial Pacific , 2010 .

[221]  A. Timmermann,et al.  The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño , 2010 .

[222]  W. Landman.  Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[223]  E. Fischer,et al.  Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves , 2010 .

[224]  C. Deser,et al.  Twentieth century tropical sea surface temperature trends revisited , 2010 .

[225]  Tim Li,et al.  Relative Contributions of the Indian Ocean and Local SST Anomalies to the Maintenance of the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone during the El Niño Decaying Summer , 2010 .

[226]  G. Compo,et al.  Removing ENSO-Related Variations from the Climate Record , 2010 .

[227]  R. Bradstock.  A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications , 2010 .

[228]  Christopher Lucas,et al.  On developing a historical fire weather data-set for Australia , 2010 .

[229]  D. Jones,et al.  High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia , 2009 .

[230]  G. Mitchum,et al.  An Anomalous Recent Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise , 2009 .

[231]  M. Wheeler,et al.  On the Remote Drivers of Rainfall Variability in Australia , 2009 .

[232]  M. Raupach,et al.  Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events precondition southeast Australia bushfires , 2009 .

[233]  B. Kirtman,et al.  El Niño in a changing climate , 2009, Nature.

[234]  Arnaud Carrara,et al.  Soil CO2 efflux and extractable organic carbon fractions under simulated precipitation events in a Mediterranean Dehesa. , 2009 .

[235]  David T. Bolvin,et al.  Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1 , 2009 .

[236]  Graham Mills,et al.  Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern Australia , 2009 .

[237]  J. Marengo,et al.  Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario , 2009 .

[238]  Zhongwei Yan,et al.  On the secular change of spring onset at Stockholm , 2009 .

[239]  A. Wittenberg.  Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? , 2009 .

[240]  Bin Wang,et al.  On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall , 2009 .

[241]  Yan Du,et al.  Role of Air-Sea Interaction in the Long Persistence of El Nino-Induced North Indian Ocean Warming* , 2009 .

[242]  C. Deser,et al.  Why the Western Pacific Subtropical High Has Extended Westward since the Late 1970s , 2009 .

[243]  P. Jones,et al.  The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project , 2009 .

[244]  D. Roy,et al.  An active-fire based burned area mapping algorithm for the MODIS sensor , 2009 .

[245]  J. Marengo,et al.  Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability , 2009 .

[246]  Yan Du,et al.  Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect on Indo–Western Pacific Climate during the Summer following El Niño , 2009 .

[247]  Jeremy S. Pal,et al.  Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century , 2009 .

[248]  S. Kienzle.  A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow , 2008 .

[249]  P. Jones,et al.  A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 , 2008 .

[250]  James J. Hack,et al.  A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model , 2008 .

[251]  Christopher von Nagy,et al.  Prolonged suppression of ecosystem carbon dioxide uptake after an anomalously warm year , 2008, Nature.

[252]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Simulated interannual variation in summertime atmospheric circulation associated with the East Asian monsoon , 2008 .

[253]  D. Changnon,et al.  Climatology of Surface Cyclone Tracks Associated with Large Central and Eastern U.S. Snowstorms, 1950–2000 , 2008 .

[254]  V. Barros,et al.  Land use impact on the Uruguay River discharge , 2008 .

[255]  V. Kousky,et al.  Assessing objective techniques for gauge‐based analyses of global daily precipitation , 2008 .

[256]  V. Barros,et al.  Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation , 2008 .

[257]  N. Nicholls,et al.  Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: relationships with climate and predictability , 2007 .

[258]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature , 2007 .

[259]  N. Sato,et al.  Dynamical Processes Related to the Appearance of the Okhotsk High during Early Midsummer , 2007 .

[260]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends , 2007, Nature.

[261]  G. Meehl,et al.  Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate , 2007 .

[262]  C. Müller,et al.  Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance , 2007 .

[263]  Pedro J. Depetris,et al.  Discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic seaboard: An overview , 2007 .

[264]  S. Xie,et al.  Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon , 2006 .

[265]  Stanley A. Changnon,et al.  Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States , 2006 .

[266]  Y. Kosaka,et al.  Structure and dynamics of the summertime Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern , 2006 .

[267]  M. Kimoto.  Simulated change of the east Asian circulation under global warming scenario , 2005 .

[268]  Myles R. Allen,et al.  The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts , 2005 .

[269]  D. Karoly,et al.  A new approach to detection of anthropogenic temperature changes in the Australian region , 2005 .

[270]  M. Clark,et al.  Interannual and interdecadal variability of thailand summer monsoon season , 2005 .

[271]  P. Stott,et al.  Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 , 2004, Nature.

[272]  S. Wakabayashi,et al.  Extraction of Major Teleconnection Patterns Possibly Associated with the Anomalous Summer Climate in Japan , 2004 .

[273]  Xiuji Zhou,et al.  The Sea Ice Extent Anomaly in the North Pacific and Its Impact on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall , 2004 .

[274]  H. Nakamura,et al.  Evolution and dynamics of summertime blocking over the Far East and the associated surface Okhotsk high , 2004 .

[275]  D. Lüthi,et al.  The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves , 2004, Nature.

[276]  Luca Bonaventura,et al.  The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model description , 2003 .

[277]  F. Schwing,et al.  A new climate regime in northeast pacific ecosystems , 2003 .

[278]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[279]  Robin T. Clarke,et al.  Long‐term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin , 2003 .

[280]  Myles Allen,et al.  Liability for climate change , 2003, Nature.

[281]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[282]  Eric P. Smith,et al.  An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values , 2002, Technometrics.

[283]  John R. Lanzante,et al.  The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans , 2002 .

[284]  John P. Ryan,et al.  Biological and chemical consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño in central California waters , 2002 .

[285]  T. Zhou,et al.  Simulation of the east asian summer monsoon using a variable resolution atmospheric GCM , 2002 .

[286]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Ecological responses to recent climate change , 2002, Nature.

[287]  R. E. Hart,et al.  Standardized Anomalies Applied to Significant Cold Season Weather Events: Preliminary Findings , 2001 .

[288]  M. Hoerling,et al.  ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change , 2001 .

[289]  J. O'Brien,et al.  Regional Snowfall Distributions Associated with ENSO: Implications for Seasonal Forecasting , 2001 .

[290]  Xuebin Zhang,et al.  Characteristics of Daily and Extreme Temperatures over Canada , 2001 .

[291]  Nigel J. Tapper,et al.  The Sensitivity of Australian Fire Danger to Climate Change , 2001 .

[292]  Bin Wang,et al.  Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate? , 2000 .

[293]  Raquel V. Francisco,et al.  Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM , 2000 .

[294]  M. Allen.  Do-it-yourself climate prediction , 1999, Nature.

[295]  Yasu-masa Kodama.  Airmass Transformation of the Yamase Air-flow in the summer of 1993 , 1997 .

[296]  J. Matsumoto.  Seasonal transition of summer rainy season over indochina and adjacent monsoon region , 1997 .

[297]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[298]  M. Healey,et al.  Ocean ecology of North Pacific salmonids , 1993 .

[299]  Rong-hui Huang,et al.  The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism , 1989 .

[300]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation , 1981 .

[301]  Marie Sanderson,et al.  Pre-monsoon rainfall and its variability in Bangladesh: a trend surface analysis / Chute des pluis de la pré-mousson et sa variabilité au Bangladesh: Tendance d'analyse en superficie , 1979 .

[302]  R. Carey.  Atmospheric Science: An Introductory Survey , 1978 .

[303]  K. Hasselmann,et al.  Stochastic climate models , Part I 1 Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability , 2010 .

[304]  Jianguo Tan,et al.  Attribution of a Record-Breaking Heatwave Event in Summer 2017 over the Yangtze River Delta , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[305]  J. Fasullo,et al.  Observations of the Rate and Acceleration of Global Mean Sea Level Change , 2019, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[306]  S. Lewis,et al.  A Multifactor Risk Analysis of the Record 2016 Great Barrier Reef Bleaching , 2018 .

[307]  Chunlüe Zhou,et al.  Attribution of the July 2016 Extreme Precipitation Event Over China’s Wuhang , 2018 .

[308]  Stephanie C. Herring,et al.  Future Challenges in Event Attribution Methodologies , 2018 .

[309]  H. Shiogama,et al.  Climate Change Increased the Likelihood of the 2016 Heat Extremes in Asia , 2018 .

[310]  J. Marra,et al.  Patterns and projections of high tide flooding along the U.S. coastline using a common impact threshold , 2018 .

[311]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Ecological Impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific , 2018 .

[312]  M. McCammon,et al.  The High Latitude Marine Heat Wave of 2016 and Its Impacts on Alaska , 2018 .

[313]  N. Bindoff,et al.  Anthropogenic and Natural Influences on Record 2016 Marine Heat waves , 2018 .

[314]  M. Mineter,et al.  Anthropogenic Forcings and Associated Changes in Fire Risk in Western North America and Australia During 2015/16 , 2018 .

[315]  Ebbie,et al.  A Detectable Anthropogenic Shift toward Heavy Precipitation over Eastern China , 2018 .

[316]  T. Knutson,et al.  CMIP5 Model-based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global Warmth During 2016 , 2018 .

[317]  E. Wood,et al.  17. Anthropogenic intensification of southern African flash droughts as exemplified by the 2015/16 season , 2018 .

[318]  James D. Scott,et al.  Forcing of Multiyear Extreme Ocean Temperatures that Impacted California Current Living Marine Resources in 2016 , 2018 .

[319]  F. Werner,et al.  Explaining Extreme Ocean Conditions Impacting Living Marine Resources , 2018 .

[320]  Zeng‐Zhen Hu,et al.  Do Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Yangtze River Extreme Rainfall , 2018 .

[321]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[322]  N. Lau,et al.  Heat Waves in Southern China: Synoptic Behavior, Long-Term Change, and Urbanization Effects , 2017 .

[323]  S. Jevrejeva,et al.  The Twentieth-Century Sea Level Budget: Recent Progress and Challenges , 2016, Surveys in Geophysics.

[324]  C. Kobayashi,et al.  The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics , 2015 .

[325]  T. Zhou,et al.  The key oceanic regions responsible for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high and associated mechanisms , 2015, Journal of Meteorological Research.

[326]  P. Stott,et al.  Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave , 2015 .

[327]  Chao He,et al.  Responses of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High to Global Warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios Projected by 33 CMIP5 Models: The Dominance of Tropical Indian Ocean–Tropical Western Pacific SST Gradient , 2015 .

[328]  Martin F. Lambert,et al.  A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts , 2014 .

[329]  G. Yohe,et al.  Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment , 2014 .

[330]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States , 2014 .

[331]  Kirsten Benkendorff,et al.  Ontogeny and water temperature influences the antiviral response of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas. , 2014, Fish & shellfish immunology.

[332]  R. Francis,et al.  Relating spatial and temporal scales of climate and ocean variability to survival of Pacific Northwest Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) , 2013 .

[333]  Chen Da.  Interannual and Interdecadal Variabilities of Circulation over Lake Baikal Region in Late Spring and Their Association with Temperature and Precipitation over China , 2013 .

[334]  U. Schneider,et al.  GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle , 2013, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[335]  T. Knutson,et al.  5. THE EXTREME MARCH-MAY 2012 WARM ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES: GLOBAL CONTEXT AND MULTIMODEL TREND ANALYSIS , 2013 .

[336]  D. Easterling,et al.  Observations: Atmosphere and surface , 2013 .

[337]  J. Michaelsen,et al.  ATTRIBUTION OF 2012 AND 2003 – 12 RAINFALL DEFICITS IN EASTERN KENYA AND SOUTHERN SOMALIA , 2013 .

[338]  C. Deser,et al.  Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[339]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional , 2013 .

[340]  Simon,et al.  Are recent wet northwestern European summers a response to sea ice retreat? , 2013 .

[341]  C. Field.  Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption , 2012 .

[342]  I. Kang,et al.  Changes in El Niño and La Niña teleconnections over North Pacific–America in the global warming simulations , 2010 .

[343]  Norden E. Huang,et al.  Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition: a Noise-Assisted Data Analysis Method , 2009, Adv. Data Sci. Adapt. Anal..

[344]  Wu Bo.  Seasonally Evolving Dominant Interannual Variability Modes of East Asian Climate * , 2009 .

[345]  Shi Jun.  Effect of Urban Heat Island on Heat Waves in Summer of Shanghai , 2008 .

[346]  M. Kenward,et al.  An Introduction to the Bootstrap , 2007 .

[347]  K. Finkele,et al.  National gridded drought factors and comparison of two soil moisture deficit formulations used in prediction of Forest Fire Danger Index inAustralia , 2006 .

[348]  Yang Hui.  Diagnostic Study of Serious High Temperature over South China in 2003 Summer , 2005 .

[349]  Daniel T. Kaplan,et al.  Introduction to Statistical Modeling , 2005 .

[350]  W. Collins,et al.  Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) , 2004 .

[351]  M. Pook,et al.  Atmospheric blocking and storm tracks during SOP-1 of the FROST Project , 1999 .

[352]  D. Karoly,et al.  Extreme fire weather in Australia and the impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation , 1999 .

[353]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Years of Drought Variability in the Central United States , 1998 .

[354]  C. Torrence,et al.  A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. , 1998 .

[355]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  Hydrological modeling of continental-scale basins , 1997 .

[356]  B. Liebmann,et al.  Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset , 1996 .

[357]  Randal D. Koster,et al.  The components of a 'SVAT' scheme and their effects on a GCM's hydrological cycle , 1994 .

[358]  D. Yihui.  The Summer Monsoon in East Asia , 1994 .

[359]  R. Lu.  Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the northern hemisphere summer circulation , 1987 .

[360]  R. Sibson,et al.  A brief description of natural neighbor interpolation , 1981 .

[361]  G. M. Byram,et al.  A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control , 1968 .

[362]  S S I T C H,et al.  Evaluation of Ecosystem Dynamics, Plant Geography and Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in the Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model , 2022 .