Building and Analyzing an Energy Demand Signed Digraph

This paper describes some of the author's work on developing a methodology for building and analyzing an energy demand signed digraph using the subjective judgements of groups of experts. The method is illustrated using energy consumption in the transportation sector, in particular in the intraregional commuter transportation sector, as an example. The specific procedure described consists of three rounds, two devoted to choosing nodes and one to choosing edges and signs. The expert judgments of round 3 are combined to build an energy demand signed digraph for intraurban commuter transportation, and this signed digraph is then analyzed using the mathematical tools developed in Brown et al. (1972). Stabilizing strategies are identified, as are stable and unstable starting nodes and feedback loops contributing to stability and instability of the system. The conclusions are interpreted for their significance for energy demand in intraurban commuter transportation (this significance is mostly tentative and suggestive at this time) and as an illustration of the application of the signed digraph methodology.