Probabilistic dependence between streamflow and hydroclimatic variables and the possible linkages to large-scale atmospheric circulation: A case study in Baden-Württemberg, Southwest Germany

Abstract This study presents an investigation of probabilistic relationships between streamflow and hydroclimatic variables (including precipitation, temperature and soil moisture) and the potential links to large-scale atmospheric circulation over Baden-Wurttemberg, Southwest Germany. First, the joint dependence between seasonal streamflow and hydroclimatic variables was established by using copulas. On the basis of the joint dependence structure, we estimated the probabilities of hydrological droughts and prolonged high-streamflow events conditioned upon two different scenarios (high and low) of hydroclimatic variables for various seasons over the study area. The results indicate that both precipitation and soil moisture are positively related to the streamflow variation in Baden-Wurttemberg for each season and strongly impact the likelihoods of hydrological droughts and high-streamflow events. Temperature tends to have less impact on the streamflow variation, and an inverse connection between streamflow and temperature is found in spring and summer. Then, the connections between streamflow variability and large-scale atmospheric circulation in summer and winter were explored by using composite analysis. Although the atmospheric circulation patterns vary in each season, it can be found that in summer high streamflow anomalies over Baden-Wurttemberg are related to a cyclonic activity over central Europe while low streamflow anomalies are linked to anticyclonic patterns over western Ireland. The high streamflow anomalies in winter are strongly impacted by the westerlies that play an important role in favoring warm and moist airstreams from the Atlantic Ocean towards the study area, while an opposite atmospheric pattern is found for the years with low streamflow anomalies. The presented probabilistic methodology could also be applied in other regions worldwide.

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