PROBABILISTIC SOIL EXPLORATION: CASE HISTORY

Probability concepts are applied to the interpretation of soil exploration data at a site where failure in a weak layer is considered probable. The subsoil is modeled as a two-class material with soft clay layer as included within a stiff clay. A hypothetical case history is constructed to illustrate the interpretation of data obtained at different stages of the soil exploration program. The analysis of the soil exploration program considers detection and recognition of the soft material and inference that the soft material exists at unexplored locations, given that it has been detected at explored locations. The judgment of practicing engineers regarding the site conditions are presented as subjective probabilities.