Comparison of several Kalman filter models for establishing MUF

Detection of MUF in a material balance area is a problem in nuclear material control. It has been shown that the Kalman filter can detect a MUF in situations which could not be detected by the traditional control chart approach using LEMUF. The Kalman filter is extended in this paper to cover two additional scenarios: (1) the case where a random quantity with a mean of M(t) is removed per period, and (2) the case where MUF is a fraction of the on-hand inventory each period. The Kalman filter is robust, sensitive, produces estimates of the error covariance matrix, and is an iterative technique which is suited for on-line-direct-input information systems. (DLC)