Predicting Behavioural Evolution on a Graph-Based Model

Corruption is the bane of any economy. Its malady cuts across religious, socio-economic and political system of Nigeria. With a fast and contagious spread through the nation’s socio-economic and political strata, its adverse malignant effect is today, difficult to treat. This study models its contagion via an agent-based graph-diffusion model. Graphs are now quickly becoming the dominant life-form of most activities in a society, with human actors as nodes. Actors have ties that bind them to others via interaction as they form a social graph that analyzes the agent’s local feats via interaction to impact on the society as a global structure. Study explores the graph’s rich connective patterns and personal-networks as actors influence each other, so that graph’s behaviour evolves to orchestrate a relationship in probabilities of observed data and recognize patterns that aid decision making via its convergence to predict the expected number of final adopters as its optimal solution in a multi-peak function.

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