PREMChlor: Probabilistic Remediation Evaluation Model for Chlorinated Solvents

Abstract : A new probabilistic remediation model, Probabilistic Remediation Evaluation Model for Chlorinated solvents (PREMChlor), has been developed for simultaneously evaluating the effectiveness of source and plume remediation considering the uncertainties in all major parameters. This development was conducted as an Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP) research project (ER-0704), which was a joint effort between Clemson University, GSI Environmental Inc., and Purdue University. The technical foundation of PREMChlor is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USUSEPA) REMChlor (for Remediation Evaluation Model for Chlorinated solvents) model [Falta, 2008]. REMChlor is a significant improvement on existing chlorinated solvent transport models, because it can simultaneously account for both source and plume remediation. REMChlor includes a source model based on a power function relationship linking the source mass to the source discharge and an analytical plume model based on one-dimensional advection, with three-dimensional dispersion. The plume model simulates natural attenuation or plume remediation for parent and daughter compounds in the first-order sequential decay chain. Plume model also calculates the cancer risks posed by carcinogenic compounds assuming that the contaminated water is used in a house for drinking, bathing, and other household uses. PREMChlor is developed by linking the analytical model REMChlor to a Monte Carlo modeling package GoldSim via a FORTRAN Dynamic Link Library (DLL) application. In PREMChlor, all of the uncertain input parameters are treated as stochastic parameters represented by probability density functions (PDFs). The outputs from PREMChlor are probability distributions and summary statistics of the distributions. Cost analysis of common technologies for dense non-aqueouse phase liquid (DNAPL) source re

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