Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands

Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply–demand interactions in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply–demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders’ benefits, account for the main share of water supply–demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply–demand interaction in agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and supply–demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices. The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making. Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water allocation and stakeholders’ benefits.

[1]  Kumaraswamy Ponnambalam,et al.  A Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing Water Allocation in a Reservoir System , 2008 .

[2]  Dennis Owen United Nations: World Summit on sustainable development — Johannesburg South Africa 26 August to 24 September 2002 [Report A/Conf 199/20 (as re-issued)] , 2004 .

[3]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  Modeling water resources management at the basin level: review and future directions , 2018 .

[4]  L. Lasdon,et al.  Integrated Hydrologic-Agronomic-Economic Model for River Basin Management , 2003 .

[5]  A. Dinar,et al.  Feedback Links between Economy-Wide and Farm-Level Policies: Application to Irrigation Water Management in Morocco , 2005 .

[6]  Reza Kerachian,et al.  A simplified model for reservoir operation considering the water quality issues: Application of the Young conflict resolution theory , 2008, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[7]  Jery R. Stedinger,et al.  Water Resources Systems Planning And Management , 2006 .

[8]  R. Johansson Micro and Macro-Level Approaches for Assessing the Value of Irrigation Water , 2005 .

[9]  M. Swilling,et al.  Johannesburg, South Africa , 1999 .

[10]  Dedi Liu,et al.  A Model for the Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in a Saltwater Intrusion Area: A Case Study in Pearl River Delta in China , 2009 .

[11]  Reza Kerachian,et al.  A Conflict-Resolution Model for the Conjunctive Use of Surface and Groundwater Resources that Considers Water-Quality Issues: A Case Study , 2009, Environmental management.