Excess deaths during the 2004 heatwave in Brisbane, Australia

The paper examines whether there was an excess of deaths and the relative role of temperature and ozone in a heatwave during 7–26 February 2004 in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city accustomed to warm weather. The data on daily counts of deaths from cardiovascular disease and non-external causes, meteorological conditions, and air pollution in Brisbane from 1 January 2001 to 31 October 2004 were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The relationship between temperature and mortality was analysed using a Poisson time series regression model with smoothing splines to control for nonlinear effects of confounding factors. The highest temperature recorded in the 2004 heatwave was 42°C compared with the highest recorded temperature of 34°C during the same periods of 2001–2003. There was a significant relationship between exposure to heat and excess deaths in the 2004 heatwave [estimated increase in non-external deaths: 75 ([95% confidence interval, CI: 11–138; cardiovascular deaths: 41 (95% CI: −2 to 84)]. There was no apparent evidence of substantial short-term mortality displacement. The excess deaths were mainly attributed to temperature but exposure to ozone also contributed to these deaths.

[1]  Mathilde Pascal,et al.  Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. , 2004, American journal of public health.

[2]  F. Dominici,et al.  Fine particulate air pollution and hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. , 2006, JAMA.

[3]  Gail M. Williams,et al.  Does Particulate Matter Modify the Association between Temperature and Cardiorespiratory Diseases? , 2006, Environmental health perspectives.

[4]  Beate Ritz,et al.  Air Pollution and Infant Death in Southern California, 1989–2000 , 2006, Pediatrics.

[5]  G. McGregor,et al.  Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change , 2009, International journal of biometeorology.

[6]  B. Ostro,et al.  Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in two Southern California counties. , 1995, Environmental research.

[7]  Antonella Zanobetti,et al.  The Time Course of Weather-Related Deaths , 2001, Epidemiology.

[8]  Antonella Zanobetti,et al.  Temperature and Mortality in Nine US Cities , 2008, Epidemiology.

[9]  K. Laaidi,et al.  Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming , 2006, International journal of biometeorology.

[10]  W. Martens.  Health and Climate Change: Modelling the Impacts of Global Warming and Ozone Depletion , 1998 .

[11]  M. Coleman,et al.  Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in Greater London, during the 1995 heatwave. , 1998, Journal of epidemiology and community health.

[12]  R. Blong,et al.  The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[13]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[14]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[15]  B. Drinkwater,et al.  Heat tolerance and aging. , 1979, Medicine and science in sports.

[16]  Kerrie Mengersen,et al.  Does temperature modify short-term effects of ozone on total mortality in 60 large eastern US communities? An assessment using the NMMAPS data. , 2008, Environment international.

[17]  L Morawska,et al.  Ozone modifies associations between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: analysis of the NMMAPS data , 2007, Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

[18]  R. Basu,et al.  Characterizing Temperature and Mortality in Nine California Counties , 2008, Epidemiology.

[19]  F. Dominici,et al.  Time-series studies of particulate matter. , 2004, Annual review of public health.

[20]  G Touloumi,et al.  Evidence for interaction between air pollution and high temperature in the causation of excess mortality. , 1993, Archives of environmental health.

[21]  N. Plummer,et al.  Trends in annual frequencies of extreme temperature events in Australia , 2000 .

[22]  M. J. MANTONa,et al.  TRENDS IN EXTREME DAILY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC : 1961 – 1998 , 2001 .

[23]  D. Campbell-Lendrum,et al.  Climate Change and Human Health. Risks and Responses , 2003 .

[24]  P. Switzer,et al.  Mortality Displacement and Distributed Lag Models , 2004, Inhalation toxicology.

[25]  S. Hajat,et al.  Impact of control for air pollution and respiratory epidemics on the estimated associations of temperature and daily mortality , 2005, International journal of biometeorology.

[26]  Erik Lebret,et al.  Air pollution related deaths during the 2003 heat wave in the Netherlands , 2004 .

[27]  John R. Stedman,et al.  The predicted number of air pollution related deaths in the UK during the August 2003 heatwave , 2004 .

[28]  Eger,et al.  Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U.S. cities, 1987-1994. , 2000, The New England journal of medicine.

[29]  T. Louis,et al.  Model choice in time series studies of air pollution and mortality , 2006 .

[30]  Antonella Zanobetti,et al.  The Temporal Pattern of Mortality Responses to Air Pollution: A Multicity Assessment of Mortality Displacement , 2002, Epidemiology.

[31]  M. Mcgeehin,et al.  The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[32]  F. Dominici,et al.  On the use of generalized additive models in time-series studies of air pollution and health. , 2002, American journal of epidemiology.

[33]  Paul Wilkinson,et al.  International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project. , 2008, International journal of epidemiology.

[34]  Scott L Zeger,et al.  Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. , 2002, American journal of epidemiology.

[35]  Vincent R. Gray.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[36]  Christophe Declercq,et al.  Impact of the 2003 Heatwave on All-Cause Mortality in 9 French Cities , 2006, Epidemiology.

[37]  R. Burnett,et al.  Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. , 2002, JAMA.

[38]  R. Burnett,et al.  The Effect of Concurvity in Generalized Additive Models Linking Mortality to Ambient Particulate Matter , 2003, Epidemiology.

[39]  Paul Wilkinson,et al.  Mortality Displacement of Heat-Related Deaths: A Comparison of Delhi, São Paulo, and London , 2005, Epidemiology.