Time, timeliness of innovation, and the emergence of industries

Abstract Timeliness is an important issue in industrial innovation, particularly for the emergence of industries. To refine the concept of time in new industries, three streams of research are examined: new product innovation management, order of entry into new markets, and the life cycle literature. The same three dimensions of industrial gestation reappear in each stream of literature: the evolution in demand, the evolution of technology, and the evolution of the set of rival firms. The evolution along each of these axes takes the form of reduction of uncertainty regarding future events. The rate of reduction of uncertainty may not be the same for all three axes. As a result, both strategic planning and empirical studies of emergence must take into account the relative rate of development along each axis of technology uncertainty, demand uncertainty and rivalry uncertainty. Different strategic scenarios may result from different relative rates of development.

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