GOS tree (Goal–Objective–Strategy tree) approach to strategic planning using a fuzzy-Delphi process: An application to the Indian Shrimp Industry

Abstract Setting long-term goals, specifying short-term objectives, and formulating strategies to achieve the objectives are the key elements in a strategic planning process. In this paper, we have used hierarchical relationships among these key elements to propose a Goal–Objective–Strategy (GOS) tree. We have proposed an algorithm to validate the structural relationship between two hierarchically adjacent elements of the GOS tree by getting their feasibility score rated in a five-point linguistic scale with the help of a Delphi questionnaire survey. The linguistic scores were then converted into fuzzy scores and consensus of Delphi experts' opinions on feasibility of various statements were derived mathematically using fuzzy aggregation algorithm. We have applied the GOS-tree-based approach as a tool for strategic planning for the Indian Shrimp Industry that has displayed a cyclic performance in the past and has shown signs of rejuvenation in recent times.

[1]  Tony Proctor,et al.  Establishing a strategic direction: a review , 1997 .

[2]  Harry Timmermans,et al.  Testing Hierarchical Information Integration Theory: The Causal Structure of Household Residential Satisfaction , 2003 .

[3]  Ying-Ming Wang,et al.  Two new approaches for assessing the weights of fuzzy opinions in group decision analysis , 2006, Inf. Sci..

[4]  Debjani Chakraborty,et al.  A fuzzy clustering methodology for linguistic opinions in group decision making , 2007, Appl. Soft Comput..

[5]  Mitsuo Gen,et al.  An efficient approach for large scale project planning based on fuzzy Delphi method , 1995, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[6]  Hsuan-Shih Lee,et al.  Optimal consensus of fuzzy opinions under group decision making environment , 2002, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[7]  Anthony F Jorm,et al.  Self-help strategies that are helpful for sub-threshold depression: a Delphi consensus study. , 2009, Journal of affective disorders.

[8]  Choong-Ki Lee,et al.  Examining structural relationships among perceived impact, benefit, and support for casino development based on 4 year longitudinal data , 2006 .

[9]  B. Byrne Structural Equation Modeling with LISREL, PRELIS, and SIMPLIS: Basic Concepts, Applications, and Programming , 1998 .

[10]  Jari Kaivo-oja,et al.  Delphi expert panels in the scenario-based strategic planning of agriculture , 2006 .

[11]  A. Gokhale,et al.  Environmental Initiative Prioritization with a Delphi Approach: A Case Study , 2001, Environmental management.

[12]  Abby Ghobadian,et al.  Formal strategic planning: The key to effective business process management? , 2002, Bus. Process. Manag. J..

[13]  A. Ishikawa,et al.  The Max-Min Delphi method and fuzzy Delphi method via fuzzy integration , 1993 .

[14]  Pratap K.J. Mohapatra,et al.  Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry , 1984 .

[15]  Da Ruan,et al.  Fuzzy group decision-making for facility location selection , 2003, Inf. Sci..

[16]  Willie E. Hopkins,et al.  Strategic planning--financial performance relationships in banks: A causal examination , 1997 .

[17]  L. Hayduk Structural equation modeling with LISREL , 1987 .

[18]  Dogan Gursoy,et al.  Structural modeling of resident perceptions of tourism and associated development on the Sunshine Coast, Australia , 2007 .

[19]  John A. Parnell,et al.  Strategic Management: Concepts and Cases , 1996 .

[20]  Balaji S. Chakravarthy,et al.  On tailoring a strategic planning system to its context: Some empirical evidence , 1987 .

[21]  So Young Sohn,et al.  Structural equation model for effective CRM of digital content industry , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[22]  S Y Sohn,et al.  Structural equation model for the evaluation of national funding on R&D project of SMEs in consideration with MBNQA criteria. , 2007, Evaluation and program planning.

[23]  Miao-Ling Wang,et al.  To construct a monitoring mechanism of production loss by using Fuzzy Delphi method and fuzzy regression technique - A case study of IC package testing company , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[24]  William W. Cooper,et al.  A Delphi study of goals and evaluation criteria of state and privately owned Latin American airlines , 1995 .

[25]  Ying-Feng Kuo,et al.  Constructing performance appraisal indicators for mobility of the service industries using Fuzzy Delphi Method , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[26]  Henry Mintzberg,et al.  The Pitfalls of Strategic Planning , 1993 .

[27]  Tessaleno C. Devezas,et al.  Power law behavior and world system evolution: A millennial learning process , 2003 .

[28]  Dario Cziráky,et al.  Regional development assessment: A structural equation approach , 2006, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[29]  Ossi Rahkonen,et al.  The effects of childhood circumstances, adult socioeconomic status, and material circumstances on physical and mental functioning: a structural equation modelling approach. , 2007, Annals of epidemiology.

[30]  So Young Sohn,et al.  Structural equation model for predicting technology commercialization success index (tcsi) , 2003 .

[31]  Ying-Ming Wang,et al.  A fuzzy group decision making approach for bridge risk assessment , 2007, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[32]  Charles A. Hewlett Strategic planning for real estate companies , 1999 .

[33]  Shuliang Li,et al.  A Web-enabled hybrid approach to strategic marketing planning: Group Delphi+a Web-based expert system , 2005, Expert Syst. Appl..

[34]  Sime Curkovic,et al.  Environmentally Responsible Manufacturing: The development and validation of a measurement model , 2003, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[35]  Robert C. Judd,et al.  Use of Delphi methods in higher education , 1972 .

[36]  Peter McKiernan,et al.  Strategic Planning and Financial Performance in UK SMEs: Does Formality Matter? , 1994 .