Spatiotemporal Effects of Main Impact Factors on Residential Land Price in Major Cities of China

With the rapid development of land marketization in China, the spatial patterns of residential land prices in different regions have become increasingly complicated. The very high and continuously rising residential land prices in many cities are causing significant challenges to economic development and social stability. Yet, there has only been a limited amount of attempts made to model and analyze the regional dynamic changes of residential land price systematically, especially in term of the spatially varying effects of key demographic and economic factors. In this study we provided a perspective analysis of the changes of residential land prices in 2008, 2011 and 2014 based on the land price monitoring records of 105 cities and then conducted a geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis on the relationships between residential land price and three major impact factors (i.e., immigrant population, gross domestic product (GDP) and investment in residential buildings). Results show that the areas in which GDP had relatively strong positive impacts on residential land price expanded with time. The negative effects of immigrant population on residential land price were mainly concentrated in the cities around the Bohai Rim and the area with negative effects gradually shrank in the three studied years. Conversely, the areas with negative correlation between investment in residential buildings and residential land price gradually expanded in size over time. A geographical detector was used to examine the relative importance of factors to residential land price. It was found that the GDP had more significant influence on residential land price than other factors and the influence of the three factors to overall variation in residential land price increased over the three studied years. These results underscore the importance of taking spatially varying effects of major driving factors into account in policy-making on regional land market.

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